Shor has no "Chance" in the Elections
Shor has no "Chance" in the Elections
Weekly Roundup November 4th, 2023
Welcome back to Moldova Matters. This week, almost all of the news has focused on local elections, the “hybrid war” of illicit finance and the authorities efforts to check election interference. Our Weekly Roundup will focus entirely on these topics and we’ll catch up on other political and economic news next week. Plus, we’ll have a special article next week going over the election results once they are known.
All “Chance” Party Candidates have been Removed from the Election
Citizens across Moldova will go to the polls on Sunday November 5th to vote in local elections. Today, November 4th, is the “quiet day” before the vote where all campaigning is prohibited and all election ads must already be removed. The week leading up to the last day of campaigning on November 3rd was anything but quiet with a flurry of campaign announcements from Shor candidates as well as raids, arrests and seizures of voter bribery money around the country.
This culminated with a series of dramatic events on Friday November 3rd. First, the director of Moldova’s Security and Information Service SIS presented a report on the “hybrid attacks” against Moldova at a press conference. Director Alexandru Musteata laid out the situation saying:
“SIS data indicate the preparation and implementation on the territory of Moldova, starting from the second half of 2022, of a sabotage scenario of external intervention for the violent overthrow of the democratic government and the seizure of political control by criminal groups subordinate to other countries. The organizers of this scenario are affiliated with the structures responsible for the development and implementation of political technologies in the Russian Federation, associated with the administration of the President of Russia and the Russian intelligence services. The authors of this scenario on the territory of Moldova are members of an organized criminal group led by Ilan Shor,”
Director Musteata stated that according to SIS, Russia has spent 1 billion lei ($55 million dollars) on efforts to destabilize Moldova through various mechanisms including election subversion. The Director stated that this spending included at least 200 million lei on street protests. This amount they can prove, but SIS believes the total is closer to 400 million lei. He noted 90 million lei in spending in the last 2 months in addition to around 1.2 million euros which have been funneled by “sponsor” Igal Shved through banks in Kazakhstan. SIS tracked this money to its origin in Moscow with dual Moldovan-Russian citizen Viktor Gutsulyak who is a close associate of Shor.
2500 police officers have been tasked full time with attempting to intercept money that moves around the country via a decentralized network of 5,000 individuals who distribute it to voters as bribes to vote for Shor affiliated candidates - especially those in the “Chance” party. Explaining the severity of the drain on resources he said:
“Due to the scale of these cases, we risk being left without patrol police on the roads. We cannot leave people without protection because someone is mocking the laws of Moldova. Blocking law enforcement agencies is one of the goals of this criminal group,”
Director Musteata said that SIS does not have the power to remove candidates from the elections, but he called on the government to ban the Chance party saying:
“In this context, immediate and decisive action is required from the constitutional authorities of the state,”
Prime Minister Recean convened the National Commission for Emergency Situations on the same day. Leaving the meeting he announced the total ban on Chance party candidates participating in the elections saying:
“Dear citizens. An extremely dangerous phenomenon is taking place in Moldova, which threatens sovereignty and national security. The Russian Federation, with the help of a criminal group, plans to subordinate Moldova to its interests through constant attacks on state institutions and democratic processes. The Russian Federation today cannot attack Moldova militarily, as it does in Ukraine, but systematically attacks us with billions of lei through a certain criminal network. We must stop them trying to create conditions for violence and chaos. (…) We are talking about a plan to destroy the state and the electoral processes in order to show that Moldova as a state does not exist and is not viable. (...) Money is brought into the country in different ways to buy votes for candidates and mayors,”
The Prime Minister spoke in Russian specifically addressing the Russian speaking minority in order to explain the decision. He clarified “this is not about a political party, but about a criminal group.”
The Central Election Commission CEC responded by confirming the directive from the National Commission for Emergency Situations and ordering all polling stations to place a cancelation stamp next to the Chance party candidate’s name.
The Ministry of Internal Affairs also issued as statement promising order and public safety at polling stations. They explained that they have plans for police and carabinieri (gendarme / internal troops) to be on patrol protecting public order.
Shor and Chance Respond
Chance party leader Alexei Lungu responded by saying that "Nothing bad happened. They're just afraid of us." He instructed his supporters to vote for other “trusted representatives” of Shor in their various constituencies. Lunga also decried what he called an abuse of power and issued what is becoming his customary threat - that those responsible will be arrested in the near future when new forces come to power in Moldova.
In the same day police responded to a bomb threat called against the Chance party headquarters. The building was evacuated and the threat determined to be fake. Police representatives later called this a “hybrid attack on the security of Moldova” and publicly alleged that the Chance party called the threat against themselves in order to draw attention. Police noted that Chance party members behaved poorly when they responded and attempted to order the police around and guide the investigation.
Ilan Shor, speaking on social media from his hiding place in Tel Aviv, also responded in typical fashion admitting to all the accusations and going further:
"I would like to correct Mr. Musteață's words a bit. First of all: not a billion lei, or a few thousand dollars, do not underestimate, but about 3.5 billion dollars, ready money ... Regarding party funding, of course, that's what everyone does, why hide it? Including some PAS candidates, whom I fund, who have turned to me. They are quite good people, there are quite a few of them, they got into PAS by chance, but they are there.
It is important to note that Shor has never denied, and often bragged about, his illegal actions. He claims that this money is for social support and public good, but has never denied bribing voters or distributing cash to bribe politicians. Responding to a case where a man was arrested this week in Comrat for distributing 50 euros in exchange for votes for the Chance party, Shor stated:
“Yes, we are giving away money to pensioners! Yes, we have stated this many times! Yes, we are giving away cash, because you have blocked all other ways to help people! Yes, we will continue to help! Are there any other questions? No, okay, so we talked,”
How did we get here?
Once the Constitutional Court declared the Shor Party unconstitutional this summer and Parliament moved to dissolve the party, Shor and his supporters reorganized. The “Chance” party is just the largest of many cutout parties and “independent” candidates that are now part of Shor’s distributed political network. The biggest change, and what has come into clear focus this week, has been the massive injection of illicit money into Moldova for the purposes of swaying the elections. This money comes in various forms and through different mechanisms. We’ll look at examples through some stories which came to a head this week.
Voter Bribery
For many months, the police and border guards have been intercepting money moving into Moldova and being distributed throughout Shor affiliated parties. In the past weeks this money was deployed in a massive voter bribery scheme that is more or less organized like a traditional multi-level marketing organization. Party representatives, often just opportunists looking to make money, are paid in order to distribute envelopes of money to pensioners and other potential voters. These people are compensated based on various metrics including how many voters they bribe.
This week police conducted searches at 65 locations around Gagauzia related to the “illegal financing of a political party.” These searches turned up bags of cash, prepaid bank cards, 5.6 mm ammunition (but no guns) and records showing cash dispersal for bribes. Recordings show party representatives organizing 500 - 800 lei bribes for individual voters. Police did not release the name of the party targeted, saying that it searches targeted a “coordinated effort” supporting multiple candidates and parties all controlled by the same entity. The Chance party later announced that they were the primary targets, though police noted that bribery efforts also went to support supposedly “independent” candidates as well.
Almost all persons targeted in the searches were found to have prepaid Mastercards through the PYYPL phone app. These cards and app allow nearly untraceable transfers of money from outside Moldova to Shor supporters in the country which can then be pulled from ATMs.
In a separate case, 4 persons independently came to police and turned in 1000 lei that they say was given to them in bribes to vote for unnamed political candidates. These cases happened in the north of the country. Down south in Comrat, a man called the police to notify them that a 19 year old was handing out envelopes with 50 euros in them to pensioners in exchange for votes. The police detained the man who had 17 envelopes on him and claimed he was paid 100 euros to distribute them.
Police efforts to stop the flow of this money have been massive, but it is not easy to interdict such a distributed effort. The courts have not proven helpful either with a judge releasing a man detained last month for trying to bring 550,000 euros across the border in a suitcase. The man was moved to house arrest over the objections of prosecutors who claim that he is likely to destroy evidence and flee. Moldova’s already challenged justice system is struggling to cope with this avalanche of money.
Structural Bribery
At the same time, Shor affiliated officials are using semi-legal structures to organize voter bribery within areas of the country that they control. Specifically, in Gagauzia Bashkan Hutsel announced a Shor program to supplement pensions in Gagauzia, Orhei and Taraclia city by 1000 lei per month. The program will be available to pensioners who receive less than 3000 lei per month and who apply in these localities. The regional targeting was explained as areas that are "fully governed by Shor." By October 25th, 17,000 people had applied for these supplemental pensions.
After a vote of the People’s Assembly to implement the system, the autonomy created a special bank account to receive donations from “sponsors” which would fund the program. The Bashkan announced the reception of 787,000 euros into the special account from an unnamed “sponsor” who turned out to again be Igal Shved.
The Deputy Speaker of the People’s Assembly, a member of the Communist and Socialist Block, called this a “pre-election PR stunt.” Another deputy from the block called it "direct bribery of voters."
Later Hutsel announced that 15 million lei in this special account had been blocked by the national government. Spokesmen for the government Daniel Vodă later explained saying:
"the money stolen from the citizens of our country will be seized and used for the citizens, without fueling the political ambitions of some criminal groups"
Promises of Cheap Energy
Another story about Shor’s attempts to persuade voters with financial incentives came out this week when Bashkan Hutsel announced that Shor had negotiated cheaper natural gas prices for Gagauzia this winter. She announced it stating:
"Now gas for residents of Gagauzia will be several times cheaper: 10 lei per cubic meter of fuel. A Turkish company has signed a contract with a major European trader to purchase gas directly from the European gas supply system. The Turkish company, in turn, signed a contract with a Moldovan licensed operator to deliver this gas at a special price,”
Current projections from the Ministry of Energy expect the national gas price to be 16.73 lei / cubic meter (without VAT). Including taxes, Shor’s price is nearly half that of the expected national rate.
Minister of Energy Parlicov responded by saying that the contract is a fake. He stated:
"They are electoral promises that have nothing to do with reality. If there was gas on the market with such prices, the Government would have bought it. There is no lower price than the one at which Energocom buys. The government buys and seeks cheap gas, and we do it for all citizens of our country, not for certain citizens. All summer we bought at the best price, now we have certainty for consumers – for all consumers – regarding prices and resources"
The Minister explained that the contracts were not properly signed, had no prices listed and did not specify where this gas would come from. He also noted that the Turkish company listed in the contract publicly denied any role in it, and the German company that was supposed to organize the purchase is a bakery. MoldovaGaz also noted that they had heard nothing about such a gas supply and that if anyone did want to change suppliers they would need to notify them - no such notification has been made.
President Sandu also commented on the gas situation saying:
“If 10 million cubic meters arrive free of charge, they will be transferred to Energocom and distributed throughout the country. This is right. If this volume of natural gas comes for free, then so be it. No one is going to send it back, we will take it and give it to the citizens. To all citizens of Moldova, so that it is clear,” …
“I wonder why only 10 lei? Why not 1 lei, why not free? Because these people have no limit to their promises. They built an airport, tomorrow they will build a cosmodrome in Comrat [spaceport], and so on. This is a lie that they do not stop telling, humiliating people every day with empty promises and a few pennies that they stole from the citizens of Moldova and are now trying to return to take over the country,”
Analysis - What does this mean for the elections?
This is the big question and one that we won’t see an answer to until after the votes are tallied. Ilan Shor has released another statement calling for all his supporters to go to the polls and support other candidates affiliated with him. In Balti, 11 people including 4 minors were arrested today for handing out election leaflets instructing Chance party voters which other candidates were aligned with Shor. Since today is the “quiet day” all campaigning is in breach of the election code.
Meanwhile, the Chance party is trying to appeal in court but multiple courts refused to hear the case. They have filed an appeal with the Supreme Court of Justice but at time of writing there is no news on whether or not it will be heard. Chance party representatives say that the law forbids the elimination of a party or candidate until an appeal is settled. They have called on local election commissions not to remove names from the ballot until this happens. Most likely local election officers will follow the Central Election Commission but it is possible that there could be uneven application given the late changes and appeals.
Chance was never likely to take the big prize in this election - mayor of Chisinau. But the elimination of around 600 Chance candidates from around the country will likely throw out many assumptions about the outcome that may have been held before yesterday. Local elections are hard to poll and no organization even registered to try exit-polling this year, most likely because of the cost and complexity. The CEC has accredited 1500 election observers who will be present at polling stations around the country and will publicly report any irregularities. Notably absent from this group will be representatives of the Russian government who have been denied permission to observe the election for the first time.
On the last day of campaigning, Speaker of Parliament Igor Grosu sought to cast these elections as a national referendum saying:
“This time local elections are not just elections. They coincide in time with the event regarding the EU’s decision to begin negotiations with Moldova on European integration. And our message is this: we are not just going to elect mayors or councilors. I advise looking at this election through the prism of a national poll, as a kind of referendum. And in this referendum we answer the question - which mayors we choose: pro-European or others - with all their symbols or purchased ones. And what kind of leaders we choose will be a clear indicator both for us and for our pro-European friends,”
As we’ve written before, local elections are very much local affairs. We’ll know in a few days not only what the outcome is, but who will claim broader victory in the broader national narrative.
Tomorrow Moldova votes in what is easily the most contentious local elections in the country’s history. We’ll be back early next week when the votes are tallied to break down the results.