Quick Hit - War in Ukraine #9
Tuesday March 8th
Welcome back to Moldova Matters. This week we’re continuing our new format called “Quick Hits” where we will write important updates on evolving stories during the week. For now, we’ll use this format to keep more regular updates moving on the Russia - Ukraine crisis and specifically how this impacts Moldova.
War in Ukraine
For more than a week the eyes of the world have been glued to the brutal fighting happening all across Ukraine. Massive sanctions have been leveled against Russia and there have been many attempts to try and get real information and news to a Russian public who are being lied to by their state controlled media daily. This week, a Russian Senator in the Federation council read into the record the fact that in one company she was in touch with 100 soldiers deployed to Ukraine. Now, only 4 are alive. Ukrainians continue to hold major cities and the Russian advance in the north has stalled as they regroup and bring up a huge amount of weaponry to attack Kyiv in the coming days. In the south, Kherson has fallen but not given up. Daily there are protests in the city against occupation. Nikolaiyev is under attack but holding. Odessa expects to be under attack soon.
Ukrainian forces are seriously contesting every advance and using western made Javelins, NLAW and stingers to great effect.
Today is International Women’s Day and while this holiday is not well known in the US it is a big deal in Moldova, Ukraine and Russia. On the occasion the Ukrainian Government put out the following statement:
"Women who have become a strong voice of Ukraine. Some of them are professional journalists and bloggers, others speak to tell the truth about the Russian-Ukrainian war from their own experience. Women who come first in case of emergency - doctors, rescuers, firefighters. Women fighting for their lives behind the scenes - international observers, human rights activists, psychologists, seamstresses. Women who take care of their families, who travel long distances to find safety for their children. Women who volunteer in the country and abroad to help those in need. Thank you for your determination and strong love for Ukraine!”
Around 15% of the Ukrainian armed forces are women.
Photo Source ZdG from UA Ministry of Foreign Affairs
Information War
In response to the many many memes mocking Putin for hiding in a bunker at the end of 20 meter long tables while Ukrainian President Zelinski is on the streets with his armed forces, the Kremlin arranged a photo-op. Putin appeared at a large table surrounded by female pilots and flight attendants to discuss the war. Putin was attempting to prove that he can in fact be within 10 meters of other people. The internet took this differently and various social media accounts noted that at one point Putin’s hand moved through the microphone in front of him suggesting a green screen. True? False? Unknown. But Zelinski jumped on it and made a point of touching and moving his microphone at his next press conference as a jab at Putin and to prove he is really there. Such is the information war right now. The following twitter post shows both videos.
Beyond fog of war, there is propaganda on both sides. But this is a new conflict where leaders directly message each other and the world with social media memes.
Moldova
This week US Secretary of State Antony Blinken visited Moldova and met with President Sandu and the national leadership. He reaffirmed support for Moldova’s territorial integrity and promised support on the refugee crisis. At a joint press conference President Sandu said the following regarding Transnistria
“There is no information about the changes in Transnistria since the beginning of the war, but, of course, this is our weak point and a source of unrest. Nevertheless, we are monitoring the situation, and we have no confirmation that the Russian military contingent in Pridnestrovie is participating in hostilities in Ukraine,”
On the occasion of International Women’s Day the traditional march for women’s rights became an anti-war march. In her statement to the nation President Sandu also highlighted this message saying the following:
"Let's build a world together in which the voice of a woman matters - in such a world there is no place for war,"
Transnistria
Moldovan and international leaders continue to emphasize that there is currently no intelligence of Transnistria participating in the conflict either against the rest of Moldova or against Ukraine. President Iohannis of Romania was asked if his country had any plans in the case that Moldova was attacked. He essentially said that we must start from the fact that there is no current threat of that and noted the position of NATO not to get directly involved in the war. The statement left a lot of ambiguity and did not address the question directly.
Meanwhile, Ukraine apparently does not agree with this assessment. Reports have surfaced that the railroad crossing at Kuchurhan between Transnistria and Ukraine has been destroyed. This was confirmed with conversations with sources in Moldova. The bridge would be a main line of advance if the Russian forces took Odessa and wanted to move north into Transnistria.
Why would Russian forces move into Transnistria? Why would Ukraine blow this bridge? One possible answer is a scenario that we have not previously considered at Moldova Matters. IF (and it’s a BIG if) Russia manages to take Odessa then their forces will need to move north to link up with troops attacking Kyiv. Doing that would require a long advance through many towns and small cities that Ukraine will contest. On the other hand, Transnistria is almost a south - north highway of uncontested territory that Russia can use to move north and flank in against Ukrainian positions. It is very unclear if this would actually be the plan but the Ukrainians have apparently moved to hinder this advance by blowing this bridge.
In a separate report, the Ukrainian press is reporting that missile strikes which destroyed the airport in Vinnitsa came from Transnistria. This has been denied by both the Transnistria authorities and the Moldovan Ministry of Defense. It is unclear which story is true.
Official Transnistrian Responses
This week, anonymous social media channels began calling for pro-Russia protests in Tiraspol. The Transnistrian authorities quickly denied responsibility and noted that under COVID rules no protests are allowed anyhow. They say that the call was from outside “provocateurs” implying Ukraine was behind it. That is possible, in a way. But it is just as possible that Russian groups are starting to soften the ground in Transnistria for Russian troops coming. Transnistria overall seems very wary of this war.
Separately, the Transnistrian authorities have come out strongly against Moldova’s application to join the EU. They say that this move kills the 5+2 peace talks and note that Moldova is welcome to pursue a European future but that they want no part in it. They request that Chisinau and the world recognize their independence immediately.
In response, President Sandu said that calls for independence are “neither a novelty" nor "a serious thing." She noted that Transnistria is not likely to want to give up their access to the European market through Moldova’s association agreement and that Tiraspol benefits hugely from Moldova’s connection to the EU. This is not incorrect as the EU is Transnistria’s primary trading partner by far - more than the rest of Moldova by percentage of output (Moldova right bank does a higher percent of business with Russia). The world is strange isn’t it?
Speaking of the application to join the EU President Sandu noted that this will not happen overnight and that there is time to organize a referendum. This was in response to calls by the Socialists to put the issue to a vote. The President also noted that Moldova will not give up its neutral status.
Refugee Crisis in Moldova
In the joint press conference with Secretary Blinken President Sandu summed up the situation in Moldova in the following way:
"I would like you to be able to visit us in peacetime. We have big plans for the transformation of Moldova. But the reality in which we woke up on February 24 put our plans on pause. Now all our efforts are aimed at maintaining peace.
As a neutral country, we have decided to extend a helping hand to people who have been directly affected by the war. More than 250,000 people have crossed the Ukrainian-Moldovan border since the beginning of the conflict; many of them remain in our country. We need the help of the international community so that our people and our economy can cope with the constant flow of refugees.”
Speaking about the refugee situation, Prime Minister Gavrilita explained that the government’s number one priority right now is transit. She explained that Moldova simply does not have the housing or economic capacity to support or employ so many people and that the only solution is to facilitate as much as possible transit to Romania. She noted a new facility with 5,000 beds is being arranged and will come on line soon. Around 3/4 of all refugees are staying with Moldovan families who have opened their homes to people fleeing the war. The government is preparing support for these families in the form of money and food but there is no concrete plan at this time.
While the eyes of the world are largely on Poland which has received the largest number of refugees it is critical to consider the size of the country. Poland is a large, populous and wealthy country that is part of the EU and NATO. Here is a map showing the influx of refugees per-capita:
International aid began arriving this week with a first transport of flights from France. Other EU countries including Croatia have made early commitments and are moving supplies into Moldova to help. Technically the UN is coordinating the refugee response in Moldova but they are still not operational on the ground.
Many refugees are not transiting Moldova and the country is beginning to grapple with this new reality. Chisinau City Hall announced this week that they are opening 1000 places in city schools for refugees grade 1 - 12. This is important but will be challenging to scale since only a relatively small percentage of the country’s schools are Russian speaking.
Information War in Moldova
The information war is raging even within Moldova as rumors and fake news spread faster than the authorities can either block websites or debunk claims. The following 2 rumors are most discussed and are both false.
Foreign Embassies are Leaving Chisinau - This is not happening. This rumor has been going for the last week and its easiest to debunk seeing Secretary Blinken and aid workers coming in not going out. That said, all eyes are on Odessa.
Moldova will declare Martial Law and men will not be allowed to leave soon - This rumor has been going locally but was also picked up on twitter by a Ukrainian MP. Moldovan authorities have strongly pushed back against this and said that this is not even being considered. In reality, it would not be possible even if it was. Societal cohesion in Ukraine allowed the country to go to a war footing very quickly. If Moldova even considered doing the same there would be a mass exodus and a serious threat to the political survival of the government. This is false.
Economic News
Economically, the primary news is regarding energy security. The threat to gas and electric supply is real and the Moldovan authorities are focused on potential solutions. Speaking this week President Sandu said the following:
“This is a serious vulnerability and we have had issues with this vendor in the past. The problem is that we are trying to find alternatives, and the government is discussing with other gas suppliers to see how quickly technically, and not only technically, these supplies can be provided in the event of a gas supply cut,” Maia Sandu said.
“In the case of electricity, everything is more complicated, because at present we can only receive it from Transnistria or Ukraine. And Ukraine is in a very difficult situation, and it is not clear how much, when and whether we will be able to buy at all. We can also buy in Romania, but before the Vulcanesti-Chisinau line is completed, the volumes will be small,”
This comes in light of Russian threats to cut off European gas supplies in the event that the west leverages energy sanctions. Already Romania is sending supplies to Moldova. They sent 150,000 liters of gasoline, 155,000 diesel, and 5,000 tons of fuel oil. Fuel oil can be burned in an emergency to make electricity (on a small scale) and power the thermoelectric plant to provide heating to the cities. As war wages around the pipelines supplying Moldova with gas and most electrical production is in Transnistria energy disruptions are a very real threat to Moldova. Forecasts for the coming week show a cold snap and additional snow.
What’s Next?
We’ll keep the Quick Hit’s updates coming in the following days and weeks. The fact that Odessa is likely to come under attack in the coming days implies that a major escalation of the refugee crisis is very likely. Further, this will bring the war right to Moldova’s doorstep. The situation is fluid and Ukraine is fighting hard. It is not wrong to say that they are fighting both for Ukrainian and Moldovan statehood. For now Moldova remains totally focused on humanitarian relief and the fact that Moldovans have opened their homes and their wallets to support so many refugees is a testament to the huge heart of this small country. If you have the ability to donate, or can spread the word to your networks, please consider this previous Moldova Matters post on organizations to give to.
Interesting you use the term ‘Moldova right bank’. On a map with North up it seems the other way around. I can only assume the banks of the river are denoted on the basis of the direction in which the river is flowing. Not material to the situation but interesting to a boring engineer like me. Keep up the good work …. Your updates are very welcome and informative in these horrible times.
David Trying to volunteer and come to Moldova from Eastern Germany Can bring supplies as needed I split time between the US and Germany Please send email contact info and I will follow up with whomever you suggest. Spent two years with various Peace Corps members from the time I lived in Albania Thank you Mr. Kelly