Quick Hit - War in Ukraine #8
Thursday March 3rd
Welcome back to Moldova Matters. This week we’re continuing our new format called “Quick Hits” where we will write important updates on evolving stories during the week. For now, we’ll use this format to keep more regular updates moving on the Russia - Ukraine crisis and specifically how this impacts Moldova.
These last few days have been momentous and extremely challenging. It has been hard to find time to get a Moldova Matters post together and even writing it now this is difficult with messages flooding in and news moving at the speed of sound. Today, we will start with a short personal appeal / address of the situation in Moldova as I see it. Then we will move to the news in a short bullet-point roundup.
A Short Personal Appeal
Hello Moldova Matters readers,
I regret that I have not been able to update you more regularly in the past week on the rapidly evolving situation. The fact is that Moldova, the country that I love and have called home for nearly 10 years has been engulfed by the crisis started by Russia’s unprovoked attack against the nation of Ukraine. At todays count much more than 100,000 refugees have streamed into Moldova in the last week seeking shelter and leaving their homes, livelihoods and in almost all cases part of their family, behind. This is a human tragedy on a scale that until a week ago I had no ability to comprehend. My family, like thousands of families across Moldova has taken in Ukrainian refugees as they orient themselves and prepare to transit west or look for long term accommodations. Their stories are an unbelievable mixture of horror and inspiration. Terror of bombings. Heartbreaking stories of kids who jump at the slightest sound. But also the inspiration of people who are steadfast and unflinching in their desire for a free country. One of my guests spoke of how she bought a foot-length fur coat during the 2014 Maidan protests. She cut out the pockets so she could carry 2 one and a half liter bottles filled with gasoline under the coat to supply the protesters at that time. This week she told me that this spirit is what Ukraine is bringing to Europe’s fight for a free world and why they will not give up. I believe her.
The Moldovan government and people have heroically risen to the challenge presented to them and I can honestly say that I have *never* seen this amount of mobilization and self-organization anywhere in my life. People have opened their homes, they have donated supplies, and they have volunteered their time - in many cases leaving jobs to do so.
As a small business leader in Chisinau and all around “kinda weird dude” who has lived all over, I have the privilege of having a massive rolodex of connections. This past week, myself and friends have mobilized our connections in service of refugee relief in Moldova. The need is massive. I am the President of the Moldova Small Enterprise Alliance AIM and we have partnered with Peace Corps Moldova to setup a donation center in the space that formerly housed my restaurant Smokehouse. It is a small operation but we are gathering and distributing supplies at a blinding rate. The entire building will fill, empty and fill again many times during a day with busses of supplies piling up on the street outside. The need is massive, but so is the response.
If you are in a position to contribute to supporting these refugees please consider donating to the Friends of Moldova 501c3 NGO in the US. They are working with us on the ground and directing 100% of the funds donated in coordination with our efforts at refugee relief. Tomorrow, we will be purchasing hundreds of mattresses and bedding materials as we have adopted a new refugee center being set up by a local small business and managed by the Moldovan authorities. We are working 100% hand in hand with the government in what has to be the best example of private sector - public sector cooperation I have ever heard of. We have the people. We have the need. We need the help.
In addition to the Friends of Moldova NGO please see my updated donation suggestion page here.
Thank you for indulging me this personal appeal. Our team is working long hours 7 days a week and the need just keeps coming. Moldova is proving itself a mighty country right now and I am more proud than ever to call this country my home.
David Smith
Updates - War in Ukraine
As anyone who reads the international press knows these days the Russian advance into Ukraine continues to meet heavy resistance from citizens and soldiers alike. All across the country scenes such as this one reported by TIME are playing out where people are using non-violent protest to tell Russian occupiers how unwelcome they are
Of course, non-violence is only one aspect of the resistance and the Ukrainian armed forces are not only holding most major cities but even counter attacking in parts of the east. At the same time, we should be under no illusions the Russian army has massive advantages in both equipment and manpower and is likely to shift to a campaign involving significantly more artillery and perhaps use of thermobaric and cluster munitions against civilian areas in the days to come.
Meanwhile, the Russian government has taken a very hard line against those opposed to their war in Ukraine. In response to Ukraine’s call for a foreign legion of experienced fighters who want to sign up with Ukraine the Russians have said that they do not view these fighters as subject to international laws of war and will “try them as criminals.” Though the actual threat implicit in that statement is much darker. Russia has also impose prison sentences of between 3 and 15 years for people protesting the war and a bill has been introduced to the Duma to transfer these protestors as conscripts to the front lines. Bills such as this are unlikely to pass but serve as messaging to understand exactly just how brutal the Kremlin is willing to be with those who oppose them.
Odessa
As we have discussed many times in Moldova Matters, the key to Moldova’s security in this conflict is the city of Odessa. If the Russians are able to take Odessa then they are directly in contact with Moldova’s breakaway Transnistria region and then it is very possible that through a variety of very very possible scenarios Moldova is directly in this conflict. Until now Odessa has been bombed and hit with missile strikes but not directly attacked. Ukrainian forces are holding out at Kherson but are now fully surrounded and Russians have crossed the Dnipro river and are pushing towards Mykolaiv and then Odessa.
Residents in Odessa have been hard at work fortifying the city and preparing to withstand a siege. Here is a short video of residents on one of the city’s famous Black Sea beaches filling sandbags for the city’s defense.
All in all the mayor says the city has prepared over 470 hedgehogs (wikipedia link), 50,0000 bags of sand and a number of bunkers and fortified positions. This picture comparison is a sobering summary of the situation in the city today comparing the famous Odessa Opera House in 1941 and 2022
Off the coast of Odessa another commercial ship was hit and sunk. A Panamanian flagged cargo ship was hit below the water line by either a shell or a mine (reports differ). The ship sunk but all 6 crew were saved.
Not far away, a Romanian MiG-21 was lost on patrol near the Romanian Black Sea Coast. It has not been found by the pilot is presumed dead. A rescue helicopter sent to rescue the pilot was also lost with a total loss of life of 7 Romanian aviators and military personal. The accident was blamed on bad weather but more details have yet to emerge. We are now seeing NATO aircraft and service members operating in very close proximity to Russian naval vessels.
Sanctions
Sanctions are beginning to bite in Russia. Many many companies have pulled out of Russia or begun divesting and the Russian government has announced a limited default on its national debt already in the first week of the conflict. Lots of consumer brands have pulled out of Russia but the most immediate impact has been banking sanctions that caused Visa, Mastercard, Apple Pay and Google pay to stop working all across Russia. This has caused massive lines as people in Moscow can no longer ride the subway by beeping their card of phone and cause runs on ATMs which keep running out of cash. Burger King has emerged as a standout company that is refusing too close in Russian and defying sanctions (pick your burger provider wisely).
Russia’s famous (or infamous) AutoVAZ car company which proudly made exactly the same model of Lada from 1978 to 2012 has closed down production due to chip shortages from their German supplier.
Most critically, airline sanctions are biting. Russian airlines are no longer allowed to fly to the EU and western companies are prohibited from doing business with Russian airlines. On face value this seems bad - carriers can’t fly to Europe which is the majority of their destinations. But it gets much much worse under the surface. Must Russian airlines fly Boeing or Airbus planes. These companies have cut off Russia from repair manuals as well as spare parts. Worse still, Russian airlines often do not own their planes. They are owned by leasing companies (mostly in Ireland) and these companies are recalling their planes from Russia. In one notable example today, a flight took off from Moscow to Yerevan only to have to make an unscheduled landing at a small regional Russian airport. The leasing company had recalled the plane mid-flight and the passengers had to be loaded on a bus for a long trip back to Moscow.
These are only a taste of the sanctions being leveled against Russia right now as they become *the* international pariah.
Moldova and the War
Moldova continues to be uncomfortably close to the war in Ukraine and to look east nervously. On March 1st a cruise missile strike against a Ukrainian air defense position near Izmail cause villagers in Moldova to awake to a deafening series of booms at 7:30 am. The Ukrainian position was only 34 km from the border and the Moldovan mayor has issued rules to stay at home as much as possible as strikes continue not far away.
Meanwhile, President Sandu and the government have staked Moldova’s position in this crisis by launching the “Moldova for Peace” movement. This brand is being used not only to describe the diplomatic efforts underway but also as the name of the working group within the Ministry of Internal Affairs that is coordinating the refugee response. Commenting on the unfolding war President Sandu said the following:
“As I said, Moldova condemns Russia's military intervention in Ukraine. Moldova acts where it can and where it has the greatest influence. More than 100 thousand Ukrainian citizens arrived in Moldova, half of them are now in the Republic. Try to compare these figures with the total population of Moldova to understand what efforts our country has made to help. I think this is how we can help Ukraine more and will continue to do so,”
Clearly Moldova has staked out not only its neutral ground Militarily, but its moral position of supporting Ukraine by fully engaging in refugee and humanitarian relief work.
Refugee Crisis Update
In the last 8 days around 135,000 people have crossed into Moldova from Ukraine. Around 50% of them have moved on to the west but 50% are staying in Moldova with no where to go. This is creating a huge strain on the government and society who are working to house this many people.
The government has set up a webpage for information on refugee policy and there is a specific page for people who are from Ukraine seeking help. Please share these with anyone who needs them.
From the north of the country Moldova Railways has created a special train that runs from Ocnita and Otaci border crossings to Chisinau where 1,200 people per train can be moved and given hot tea and other amenities while they travel. Southern supply lines are more difficult because the train line to Odessa runs through Transnistria and is now closed.
In Hincesti there is a center open for unaccompanied children. This is a major need since men cannot cross the border and Ukrainian orphanages are evacuating en-masse to the west.
We are told that the EU is sending 40 tons of aid as well as major financial and organizational resources. These are supposed to be coordinated by the UN and (frankly) we haven’t seen much of it yet.
Meanwhile, the Chisinau athletic arena has been set up by Moldova’s 22nd Peacekeeping battalion to receive up to 500 refugees and cam online March 3rd.
Economic News
The top economic news related to the crisis is as follows:
Ports - a huge amount of goods destined for Moldova have been stuck offshore because of the blockade of Odessa. The government has concluded an agreement with Romania for these ships to be diverted to Constanta.
No Food Shortage - Economic experts in Moldova assure that there is sufficient supply and there should be no food shortage.
Gas Prices go… down?? - Due to the pricing formula that the government negotiated with Russia gas prices have actually fallen in the last weeks to around $550 per thousand cubic meters. At the same time the EU is paying $2,400 for the same amount on the open market.
No Sanctions on Russia - Moldova is not joining western / EU sanctions on Russia. The government has stated that society, the economy and energy systems are simply too vulnerable. They note that EU and NATO countries have mechanisms for support if they get into economic warfare. Moldova does not and so remains “neutral”
Electrical Grid - Moldova and Ukraine remain on a joint electrical grid whereby they are not connected to Russia. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen stated the following: “We are working on connecting Ukraine to our energy grid. And this should be done in the coming weeks,”
Information War
The primary front of the war in Moldova is over information. Here are some updates:
Moldova has banned broadcasting Russian news - the government has used emergency powers to temporarily suspend broadcasting of some Russian news outlets. Other local outlets have been fined for promoting fake information from Russia.
Socialists Decry Bans - The Socialist party calls the bans one-sided. We must assume that they would like an equal banning of outlets controlled by multi-billion dollar anti Russian oligarchs… or something?
Fake news - Moldova is moving to attempt to fact check and debunk fake news that is arising at an astounding rate. For example, a story that got much play (and caused me to receive many scared calls) was that the Russian army controlling the bridge borders over the Nistru had repositioned their concrete barriers in some kind of preparation for hostilities. This is 100% fake as the article linked says. I was personally over the river today (giving unpleasant looks at the Russian army) and nothing has changed.
Families being torn apart - Russian propaganda is *powerful* and there have been many stories in the press this week about families being torn apart. The younger generation argues with their parents and grandparents about the war and there are stories about family members blocking each other’s numbers. The information war is real and it is happening in real time.
International Diplomacy
President Lukashenko of Belarus presented a map this week where he outlined the planned Russian invasion and presumably tried to justify his country’s part in it. Notably the map outlined all current invasion routes plus an additional attack up from Odessa into Moldova. It seems old man Lukashenko said the quiet part out loud.
Moldova protested against this map diplomatically to which the Belarussian embassy responded “oops” and said it was totally a mistake.
Meanwhile, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken is visiting the region this week and is expected in Moldova. And Moldova closed their Embassy in Kyiv and moved all consular functions to Odessa.
Is the EU Here?
President Zelenskyy of Ukraine decided this week to just go ahead and apply for membership in the EU officially. It may have been a political masterstroke as EU politicians are fully supporting Ukraine in the war and he basically presented them with a yes / no question (the EU is of course skilled at turning these into eh/ well responses").
In response European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said:
“There is no doubt that those brave people who defend our values at the cost of their lives belong to a European family. Indeed, President Zelensky sent an application. In fact, he launched a process that we will be discussing with EU members. We are now focused on ending this terrible war. And, of course, before this strategy is launched, we intend to strengthen our economic ties with Ukraine,”
Moldova, following Ukraine’s example also immediately officially applied to join the EU. The application goes to French President Macron as the rotating leader of the block. President Sandu said the following:
“We have learned the lessons and take responsibility for our future. Dear citizens, while some decisions take time, others need to be made quickly and decisively. It is necessary to act urgently when circumstances require it. Today we are signing an application for Moldova's accession to the EU. It is addressed to French President Emmanuel Macron, head of state, which today presides over the EU Council. Moldova must have a clear European path. We know what steps to take and are ready to go. Step by step, we will go through all the stages in order to build a peaceful and prosperous future for the citizens of Moldova,”
What Comes Next?
No one knows. But to quote the man that Vladimir Putin says is the godfather of the Ukrainian State Vladimir Lenin :
“There are decades where nothing happens; and there are weeks where decades happen.”
We are living in a time where decades happen in weeks.
P.S> I have written this in 30 second snippets between phone calls and organizing relief during a crazy day and only finished at 1 am. I have no energy to do an edit so please forgive the typos!!
My wife and I donated some, maybe more later. Hope to see you in the capital some day soon.
Thanks for everything you're doing. I believe the casa de copii being used in Hincesti is where Peace Corps had a volunteer posted, 2005-2007.