Quick Hit - War in Ukraine #7
Monday February 28th
Welcome back to Moldova Matters. This week we’re continuing our new format called “Quick Hits” where we will write important updates on evolving stories during the week. For now, we’ll use this format to keep more regular updates moving on the Russia - Ukraine crisis and specifically how this impacts Moldova.
War Rages in Ukraine
Right now war rages across Ukraine as invading Russian forces meet massive resistance all along the lines of advance. Major fighting is ongoing in the cities of Kyiv, Kharkiv and Mariupol as well as in the south where the line is fluid with Russian advances being driven back repeatedly by Ukrainian counterattacks. Some cities on the road to Odessa have changed hands multiple times in the last 3 days.
Ukraine has mobilized the nation fully for war from the highest leadership to average people who are signing up for territorial defense units in droves. Ukraine’s President Zelenski is leading the resistance from Kyiv regularly making appearances on social media and on the streets. US authorities apparently offered to help the President evacuate Kyiv to which he responded “I don’t need a taxi, I need ammunition.”
Over 100 deputies of the Verkhovna Rada (Ukraine’s Parliament) have taken up arms and former Ukrainian President Poroshenko is on the streets of Kyiv leading a volunteer battalion. Ukrainian television stations are providing on-air instructions on the assembly of molotov cocktails.
Meanwhile, the Ukrainian air force is not only still flying and dogfighting over major cities, they have an Ace (a fighter pilot credited with 5 or more air-to-air combat kills). This pilot is being called the “ghost” and is the first Ace in the 21st century. All the more impressive considering he or she is flying an aging MiG-29 against modern Russian fighters.
Ukraine is also calling up a Foreign Legion and invites people with combat experience from all over the world to approach the nearest Ukrainian embassy about joining the unit. The British Defense Minister has indicated support and encouraged Brits with combat experience to feel free to decide for themselves (aka there is no legal prohibition). Meanwhile, the French Foriegn Legion is allowing all Ukrainians serving in the Legion to return to Ukraine with their full military kit in order to fight.
Losses are heavy on both sides and it is impossible to get reliable estimates in the fog of war. But it is absolutely clear from open source videos being posted and verified that Russia is suffering massive losses in both life and equipment.
While the heroism and capability of the Ukrainian Armed Forces and Ukrainian people is clear, this war is only beginning. Ukrainian sources report that Belarus is likely to join the fight against Ukraine imminently and support the attack on Kyiv.
Meanwhile, Ukrainian non-combatants all around the country are sheltering in place as Russian strikes pound their cities day and night.
What we have not seen is the large, indiscriminate use of heavy weapons against civilian population centers. Given reports that the Russian army is likely to be exhausting their limited supplies of precision weapons it is very possible they will change tactics soon and massively escalate the
It is impossible not to feel a mix of incredible horror, and overwhelming inspiration at the heroism of the Ukrainian people and their desire to fight for freedom.
Sanctions Hit the Russian Economy
Militarily, Russia is not doing nearly as well as they expected. We know this because multiple Russian state controlled media outlets published what was apparently a pre-scheduled article last night declaring victory. The articles were quickly deleted but thanks to the magic of the internet are still available in archives. In the article, they toute the rebuilding of a greater Russia including the Russians, Belarussians and “little Russians” (Ukrianians). It talks of the permanent removal of Anglo-American influence in Europe and the dawning of a new world order leg by Putin’s “regathering of the Russian peoples.” It would seem Ukraine has something very serious to say about this idea.
The article is worth reading via google translate if you want to know just what the Russians are doing here.
Meanwhile, massive sanctions are already having a blistering effect on the Russian economy. Huge lines are forming at ATMs as people rush to withdraw cash due to Visa and Mastercard disrupting services. The Ruble is down 30% today alone continuing a massive fall over the past week. In order to stem the tide the Russian Central Bank has had to more than double interest rates from 9.5% to 20%. Meanwhile, the EU has closed its airspace to Russian airlines and many international airlines are no longer traveling to Russia.
Putin has been personally sanctioned by the EU and UK assuring that he will no longer be invited to all the fun parties.
***update - the original version of the article claimed that pornhub had blocked Russian users. This was incorrect.
Moldova Refugee Updates
For ways that you can contribute to the effort to support Ukrainian Refugees in Moldova please see this Moldova Matters post. We will keep updating it and linking to it as things evolve.
At the moment of writing the total number of refugees having left Ukraine is around 360,000. We do not currently have a count of how many were in Moldova. Yesterday, when CNN was reporting a total count of 150,000 there were 30,000 in Moldova. The numbers are moving so fast it is challenging to keep track of. As of this morning only 543 had claimed asylum here. It’s important to understand what this number means though. People who claim asylum are asking for a permanent or semi permanent place in Moldova. They go through a special system that usually requires some weeks or more and in many cases are in government housing during that time. Most people coming from Ukraine are entering as tourists where they have a 3 month visa automatically. People who hope to go back when the fighting stops, or hope to transit Moldova to the EU, do not apply for asylum.
Overall, Moldova has made it as simple as possible to enter the country from Ukraine. No passports or visas are needed and any kind of ID documents are accepted. No documents are required for pets. No Moldovan car insurance is required but people must buy it within 24 hours of arrival.
Meanwhile, Moldovan government and society have provided a massive outpouring of support for refugees. Many restaurants, clinics, veterinarians, and other local businesses are making services freely available to those arriving from Ukraine. NGOs and civic groups are collecting donations and the government and volunteer coordinating bodies are working very hard to distribute them. Most important of all, Moldovans have opened their homes and are accepting families from Ukraine for temporary stays. Many families only stay one night and transit. Others stay longer with no clear idea of where they are going.
Up until now most aid has been conducted by the Moldvoan authorities and local volunteers. The Prime Minister announced that major international donors should start arriving with disaster aid equipment from March 2nd. Fuel, generators, and more will be brought in to supplement the systems currently in use.
Lines continue to grow at the border with the BBC reporting that the crossing to Palanca (south near Odessa) has people in line for more than 24 hours. Amazingly, the lines in Moldova are considered shorter than Poland.
Moldovan Political Updates
On February 25th the Russian navy fired on a Moldovan flagged cargo ship in the Black Sea. It is unclear what happened but the ship had no Moldovan crew and in a bizarre twist was only crewed by Russian citizens. There are no reports of casualties. This is an example of the confusion and mistakes being made by Russian armed forces.
This post incorrectly identifies the ship as Romanian. This was later updated. Post provided for picture only.
President Sandu has been engaged in a flurry of international diplomacy speaking with European heads of state and EU figures daily. These include Romanian President Iohannis, French President Macron and many others. Little information is given about the conversations except that they deal with the ongoing security crisis and refugee support.
Meanwhile, EU High Representative Josep Borrell stated that “We are concerned about what is happening throughout the region. We fear that Russia is not going to stop at Ukraine. It will begin to work out its influence in neighboring countries - Moldova, Georgia and the eastern Balkans." He intends to visit Chisinau soon.
Economics and Infrastructure
In the context of the State of Emergency Moldova has expedited imports of critical supplies including food and medicine with EU certification (incredibly, Moldova still requires its own health agency to recertify every product from cheese to microwave ovens). Exports of corn, wheat and sugar and some other key food items are blocked as supply disruption from Ukraine is anticipated and Moldova is shoring up it’s own supplies. “Socially significant food items are subject to price markup controls. All fireworks are banned (something that will greatly please my dog).
Moldova and Ukraine remain disconnected from the Russian and Belarussian electric grids and operating independently. Minister of Infrastructure Spinu announced he supported this move given the circumstances but the fact is that Moldova can do little about it. Moldova and Ukraine have both appealed to the EU for expedited connections to European Power grids. Currently the Ukraine - Moldova grid is operating without interruptions.
This morning, Moldovan banks ceased taking currency exchange in Russian Rubles entirely.
Protests and the Information War
Moldovan authorities have moved to completely block Russian state owned networks and websites from broadcasting the news in the country. Russian sites have tried relaunching under new names and a sort of whack-a-mole situation has begun regarding Russian disinformation. The Russian Embassy in Chisinau protested these moves but printing any of that would frankly be amplifying their lies so we’ll skip it.
The Socialist Party in Moldova protested these blocks as “taking sides” and violating Moldova’s neutrality.
In Tiraspol Transnistria, 2 women protested against the war by standing in the central square holding “no war” signs. Over the course of their protest they said that most people were supportive and many people hugged them. An elderly couple attempted to take their sign saying “they have no right” to protest and called the police on them. The police chose to escort the aggressive couple away and told the protestors that they were fine protesting but should apply for a permit next time. One officer even offered to help them do so. The protestors have decided to arrange a larger protest and get a permit. It is likely that any such permit will not be approved, but it is very interesting that they found a majority of support during their protest and sympathetic support by the police.
In Chisinau, the abandoned Hotel National was painted overnight with the Ukrainian flag and a massive sign saying “no war.” The police responded by saying that the painters were unknown and that they generally support freedom of expression unless the owner complains. This was meant tongue and cheek as the owner is assumed to be Ilan Shor or Vlad Plahotnuic who are both fugitives from justice.
The situation continues to evolve very quickly. We will try and keep the updates coming from Moldova as often as possible.
We’ll continue sending Quick Hits as updates with relevant new information as it comes! In the meantime, share Moldova Matters with your friends and colleagues who are following this region and who also believe that Moldova does Matter.