Quick Hit: The Grand National Assembly

Over 75,000 gathered to support Moldova's place in the European Union

Yesterday, Sunday May 21st, Moldova held the Grand National Assembly in support of European integration, drawing crowds in excess of 75,000 people to the center of Chisinau. The event was headlined by speeches by President Maia Sandu and European Parliament President Roberta Metsola who each firmly rooted Moldova’s political and economic future as part of the EU. Speeches were punctuated by cheers from the crowd of “Europe! Europe!” “Moldova is Europe!” and much more.

Addressing the crowd President Sandu addressed the crowd saying:

“Dear Moldovans who came to the Great National Assembly Square and gathered in the capitals of the world. I'm glad there are so many of us here today. I cordially greet those who came from the north of Moldova, those who came from the south and from the center of the country. I am particularly pleased to welcome Mrs. Roberta Metzola, President of the European Parliament. And all our partners from European countries who came to support the path chosen by Moldova.

I know that our citizens from the diaspora are with us now - Milan, Rome, Paris, London, Madrid, Bucharest, Padua, Vienna, Barcelona and Budapest. I greet those who stayed in Moldova, despite all the difficulties. All the people who supported Moldova all these years. Now our voice is one. We have come to say clearly and confidently: Moldovans are Europeans. Moldova's place is in the European Union. Our project and goal is that Moldova is trembling to become a member of the European Union. This is not only my commitment, we are supported on this path by the European Union. This is what the people of Moldova demand. Whenever they took to the streets, they asked to protect their rights. They asked for this in the elections and asks now, when we have gathered together again to decide the fate of Moldova. Europe is not just a political slogan. Europe is a way of life, a dream that must become a reality.

This dream depends on each of us. The path may seem long, but this is the only path that will ensure peace and prosperity for the future generations of our children,”

This marked the largest such gathering in Moldova since the Grand National Assembly for Independence on August 27, 1989. In side by side pictures (as seen at this link) it is arguable that yesterday’s event was larger than that historic day. Police estimated a total number of attendees between 75,000 and 80,000 people crowding into the square and the park behind. The police reported that there were zero citations for public disturbances or other problems during the event.

At the same time the Moldovan diaspora gathered in rallies supporting the Grand National Assembly in Bucharest, Iasi, Dublin, London, Kyiv, Brussels, Vienna, Strasbourg, Rome, Milan, Prague, and more.

President Sandu spoke first addressing the crowd primarily in Romanian but speaking in all of Moldova’s minority languages throughout the speech - Russian, Gagauz, Ukrainian and Bulgarian. During the Ukrainian section President Sandu shouted “Glory to Ukraine!” to which the crowd strongly responded “Glory to Heroes!” She stressed Moldova’s diversity and the European commitment to minority rights saying:

“Dear fellow citizens, the European Union at home is a prosperous life for every citizen, for all the children of Moldova. And for this, we must put aside differences and unite so that mutual understanding and peace reign in our country. The European Union protects and supports ethnic groups and their cultures. Moldova's accession to the European Union means being equal with the citizens of European states, it means being proud of our country and diversity, it means that we respect ourselves and the whole world respects us,”

Speaking next, European Parliament President Roberta Metsola addressed the crowd in English affirming Moldova’s place in Europe and the EU’s commitment to Moldova including her hope that ascension negotiations begin this year. She opened her speech saying:

"Dear Europeans, I am proud to be with you today, speaking to so many people who believe in a European future for Moldova. I came to support you and President Maia Sandu and say that Europe is Moldova, and Moldova is Europe,”

Note: If you want to watch the whole of President Metsola’s speech in English, and it is well worth listening too, it is on youtube here starting at 1:11:28.

The Resolution of the National Assembly

During her speech, President Sandu read out a resolution on Moldova’s European future which was acclaimed by the crowd and adopted as the goals of those assembled. It is worth printing the resolution in full here:

"We, the citizens of the Republic of Moldova, gathered on May 21, 2023 in the Grand National Assembly Square, at a decisive moment for the fate of the country, to affirm the aspiration of the Republic of Moldova to become a full member of the European Union, the development of which we want to make our contribution, by virtue of being European, historically, geographically, culturally and as a set of values.

The indisputable right to guarantee a European, democratic, free and prosperous future for the Republic of Moldova belongs to the people of the Republic of Moldova. Joining the European Union is the only way that can bring stability to our country in the face of challenges and the only chance for the development of the Republic of Moldova that will allow future generations to realize their potential, accumulate wealth, modernize the country and lead a fulfilled life. In this regard, we adopt the following:

We ask the political class of the Republic of Moldova, all parties and politicians now and all those who will decide the fate of the country in the future:

1. To amend the Constitution of the Republic of Moldova in order to definitively and irreversibly establish the accession of the Republic of Moldova to the European Union. This common aspiration of Moldovans must be fulfilled by all political actors in the Republic of Moldova.

2. To ensure the opening of accession negotiations to the European Union as quickly as possible and to strengthen state institutions in order to achieve the desired goal of accession to the European Union.

3. To prepare civil servants, mayors, the academic environment, business people for the EU accession process with the objective of increasing the absorption capacity of European funds and fully utilizing the benefits of the accession process in order to modernize the country.

4. To expand the international context of negotiations for the definitive peaceful resolution of the Transnistrian conflict and to use the EU accession process as a catalyst for increasing the well-being and standard of living of Moldovan citizens in the reintegrated Transnistrian region.

5. To ensure a rapid transposition of European legislation by involving specialists from countries that have recently completed the same accession stage, in particular, from Romania.

6. To ensure the interconnection of all infrastructure systems to the European market – electrical, gas transport, road, rail, communications – to exclude any type of blackmail and ensure the independence of the Republic of Moldova to develop freely and without constraints.

7. To firmly condemn the illegal and inhumane war started by Russia in Ukraine which undermines stability and seriously affects the entire region, including the Republic of Moldova, and to take a clear position against the people who started the war, those declared war criminals by international institutions and those who support the war and participate in the destabilization of the situation in the region and in our country.

Considering the desire of the citizens of the Republic of Moldova to transform the country on the European path, we call on the institutions of the European Union to continue the support given to our country and to accept the Republic of Moldova in the European family after the fulfillment of the conditions of accession",

Shor Party Counter-Protests

The Shor Party organized counter-protests in Balti, Orhei and Comrat with a stated goal of calling for a “referendum” on Moldova’s geopolitical alignment to counter the Assembly’s message of European integration. The Shor Party claimed attendance of 60,000 people at the 3 protests combined. This was contradicted by police reports that counted between 5,000 and 5,500 people across the 3 events - 1500-1700 in Balti, less than 2000 in Orhei and around 1500 in Comrat. This was backed up by Newsmaker journalists who counted around 1,000 people in Comrat.

At the Shor rallies speakers focused on the idea of a referendum, speeches about the “wonderful Soviet past” and various messages maligning President Sandu. Shor appeared via video conference from Israel to address the group in Comrat about making Moldova “great” without external help.

To underline just how unimpressive the numbers from the Shor rallies were, Russian propaganda channels showed pictures of the Grand National Assembly in Chisinau saying that these were in fact anti-government protests in Comrat. While the logic of blatantly lying about the crowd size seems somehow fitting… it is noteworthy that they clumsily chose photos taken from an angle clearly showing a 5 story tall EU flag in the very center of the picture. It’s rather hard to know who might be fooled by tactics like these.

Analysis - What is the outcome of the event?

When analyzing the event it is best to talk in terms of the three goals the authorities likely had in holding the Assembly.

1. Showing a society united for Europe and to push back against constant news coverage of anti-government protests

2. Consolidating society across parties towards irreversible EU integration

3. Consolidating popular support for President Sandu and PAS both at home and in the eyes of western partners going into the EPC summit.

In terms of the first goal, it is hard not to see the Grand National Assembly as anything but an unmitigated success. International news covered the event with a focus on photos of the huge crowd size including the BBC, RFERL, Reuters, Al Jazeera, France 24, EURACTIV, Politico and more. The sheer size of the crowd drove much of the conversation. This crowd size is even more impressive if you consider that it was a rally “For” rather than “against” something. Even in 1989 the Grand National Assembly was for Independence but also against Soviet occupation.

Speaking about the crowd and event Romanian MEP Siegfried Muresan Vice President of the European People’s Party EPP who was at the event said:

"I expected the "European Moldova" Assembly to be a success, but the event exceeded my expectations... The citizens of the Republic of Moldova sent today a very strong message of European integration. 80,000 people from all over the country, from the North and the South, from the rural and urban areas, young and old, came to support the European integration of the Republic of Moldova",

Combined with the failure of the Shor Party to mount much in the way of opposition this event did more than show huge support for EU integration. In concrete terms it showed the government controls the institutions of power and the ability to dominate on the streets as well.

Progress on the second goal is a little less clear. Experts note that the “irreversibility” of support largely relies on the ability of the government to implement reforms and help the people feel the potential of a brighter future in Europe. The stated goal of a constitutional amendment enshrining EU aspirations remains impractical. PAS has 63 seats in the 101 seat parliament, 4 short of the required 67 votes for a constitutional amendment. Even if we assume the “independent” MAN party representative Stanislav Vartanian supported the amendment, that leaves PAS 3 votes short - votes that would have to come from the Socialists, Communists or Shor factions. The fact that all three of these parties are staunchly anti-EU underlines the fact that the country is not fully united even if there is a strong majority for EU integration.

Finally, it is fair to say that the 3rd goal of this event was also a success. Political experts in Moldova agree that the size and success of this event, including the support from Roberta Metsola and organs of the EU itself, have firmly tied EU Integration to President Sandu herself. Going into the 2024 presidential election it is unlikely that President Sandu will face any serious pro-EU challenger and that she will be able to run on EU integration as an integral facet of her presidency and candidacy. Experts are more torn on whether the same benefits will accrue to the PAS parliamentary faction and note much depends on the acceleration of reforms.

Most critically in the short term, President Sandu goes into the June 1st EPC Summit leading a consolidated public that strongly supports EU integration. That will give her and the government added legitimacy in the eyes of the visiting EU leaders and allow them to more strongly push for accelerated timelines for integration.

All in all, the Grand National Assembly marked a great moment for all those who want to see Moldova as part of the broader EU community. Further though, it also marked a potentially historical moment on Moldova’s long but ever more confident journey to seeing this aspiration a reality.