Quick Hit - Russia Ukraine Crisis #2

Tuesday February 22th

Welcome back to Moldova Matters. This week we’re continuing our new format called “Quick Hits” where we will write important updates on evolving stories during the week. For now, we’ll use this format to keep more regular updates moving on the Russia - Ukraine crisis and specifically how this impacts Moldova. 

Russia Begins its War

As anyone who has been watching the news over the last few days will know, the situation in Ukraine has taken a turn for the worse. Over the weekend US President Biden announced that he believes that the Kremlin has taken the decision to invade Ukraine and that this would likely involve an attack on the capital of Kyiv. Various “false flag” style operations have been noted in the occupied territories of Eastern Ukraine over the last week. Each has been conducted in a manner that is so transparently unbelievable as to indicate that the Russian authorities may not even care if they are believed. Russia and it’s proxies falsely accused Ukraine of shelling the Donbas territories while themselves shelling Ukrainian positions. A car bomb exploded in Donetsk which Russian proxies claimed was an assasanation attempt against their leader. This turned out to be faked as the license plates from the leader’s expensive new car were simply put on a 30 year old jeep which was blown up. Apparently the commitment to fake attacks did not go so far as the destruction of his actual car. 

These supposed provocations resulted in the leaders of the so-called Donetsk and Luhansk Peoples’ Republics’ declaring a mass evacuation of women and children from their cities to Russia. Air raid sirens were sounded in the cities and women and children herded onto buses while all men aged 18 - 55 were told that they were being conscripted into the army on the spot. The videos announcing these proclamations were supposedly sent out live based on the developing “Ukrainian attacks.” In fact, they were filmed 2 days before on February 16th. Unfortunately, many people who were evacuated found themselves stranded in unheated buses for up to 24 hours with on food, water or bathrooms. The whole exercise in performative propaganda led to the leaders of the sepratist regions requesting official recognition from Russia and for Russian military support. 

Last night, Vladimir Putin addressed the Russian people for over an hour which culminated in his decision to recognize the seperatist “People’s Republics” and order Russian armed forces to cross the Ukrainian border as “peacekeepers.” Here is a link to Putin’s speech in English. The entire address was extremely bizarre and rambling. Putin repeatedly asserted that Ukraine is not and has never been a nation. He blamed the current state of affairs on Lenin, NATO, the 1924 Soviet Constitution, Russian General Suvorov’s various conquests in the late 1700s and other historical wrongs that he claimed were perpetrated against Russia. Putin did not even address the 2 seperatist peoples’ republics’ by name until late in the speech. He focused most of his attention on Ukraine as a whole and his (completely incorrect) assertions that it is not a country. 

As of this morning shelling is continuing along the contact line and Russian troops are moving into eastern Ukraine. Most observers, including the US government, believe this is the first step in a potentially massive escalation against Ukraine outside of the seperatist regions. Russian troops continue to position all along the Ukrainian border and Russian naval units, some loaded with troops in landing ships, have put to sea and threaten the southern coast. 

This short summary hardly does justice given the magnitude of stories and reports over the last 3 days. But we can see 3 things very clearly. Firstly, Russia has manufactured a reason to militarily intervene in Ukraine’s far east. Secondly, Putin has clearly stated that he does not believe Ukraine has a right to exist. Thirdly, Russian troops are in position to affect a maximalist intervention that would not be limited to the seperatist controlled regions in the east. 

The Situation in Moldova

Putin’s action to recognize the independence of the seperatist regions in Ukraine’s east has shocked all those around the world that had previously played down the seriousness of the Russian threats against Ukraine. The same is true in Moldova where only in the last 2 weeks has there been any real public recognition in the media, government or society that a war has been brewing in the east. Now all eyes are focused on Ukraine and everyone is trying to understand what this means for Moldova. 

Meanwhile, also over the weekend the Transnistrian armed forces along with Russian troops stationed there conducted live night-fire exercises. These were designed to check the combat readiness of the Transnistrian based troops and follow a pattern of unusual exercises in the breakaway region. 

Source ZdG

Also in the past few days Moldova Matters spotted an unusual flight out of Odessa mirroring the Transnistrian border. In the past weeks lots of Open Source Intelligence experts have been watching US Air Force flights over Ukraine as Global Hawk drones and other manned and unmanned aircraft have flown near the Russian border assisting the Ukrainians in assessing the current Russian troop dispositions. This particular flight was unnamed but appeared to be a Ukrainian drone or small plane analyzing what is going on near the Transnistrian border. It would seem that Ukraine or it’s partners is interested in what Russian troops are doing in the region. 

Source FlightRadar24

Ministry of Foreign Affairs

Reacting to Putin’s moves, the Minister of Foriegn Affairs has stressed Moldova’s support for Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity and called Russia’s moves illegal. They warned about the increasing frequency of fake news and misinformation and cautioned citizens to only follow trusted sources. Furthermore, the Ministry urged caution to all Moldovan citizens planning trips to Ukraine stating that they should avoid mass gathering and keep money and documents with them in case they have to leave the country on short notice. Moldova’s embassy in Kyiv and consulate in Odessa remain open. 

President Sandu’s Statement on the Crisis

We strongly condemn recognition by 🇷🇺 of the separatist areas of Donetsk & Luhansk oblasts of 🇺🇦. This is clearly against intl law. 🇲🇩 remains firmly committed to supporting the sovereignty & territorial integrity of 🇺🇦 within its internationally recognized borders.

The President initially responded to Putin’s announcement with the twitter post above. Today, she additionally made a televised statement that Moldova “vehemently condemns hostile actions against Ukraine.” President Sandu said:  

"Actions, such as those we see in Ukraine, are finding fertile ground amid fears and divisions in society. The most effective weapons of war are courage, unity and wisdom. With fear and division, a united society cannot be built. We all live in this country, and peace is upon us all. We are all peaceful people with a desire for prosperity, "

"Dear citizens, Moldova is a peaceful country. Yesterday's developments and those that will follow can influence the course of events in our country. We do not stop from what we set out to do, to build a state for the citizens. We will work to increase people's well-being. We will strengthen democracy and transparent governance. We reiterate our commitment to providing citizens with a European future. "

Additionally, the President noted that Moldova was prepared to assist the citizens of Ukraine if it was needed. 

Analysis: The Strongest Statement to Date

This statement from President Sandu was unambiguous in support for Ukraine and condemnation of Russian aggression. It is also noteworthy because it makes a few key points:

1. Moldova is willing to assist Ukrainians - It was left unsaid what this meant. But most likely it referred to refugees heading west. 

2. These developments can “influence the course of events in [Moldova]” - This is the closest to date that any Moldovan leader has come to noting just how destabilizing and dangerous a war in Ukraine can be for Moldova. 

3. A warning against division - The President warned against division in society and has called on citizens to come together. This points to the primary immediate concern of the Moldovan government being societal fracturing and strife. 

We still have very little idea what the authorities are doing to prepare for the ways this crisis will likely impact Moldova. Given the speed of events we are likely to see many more calls this week for specifics from the government. 

An Unsuccessful Rally in Comrat

As an example of just the kind of societal fracturing that President Sandu may have been worried about, a group called the "Patriots of Gagauzia” organized a protest in Comrat, the capital of the autonomous region. The group wanted to protest high gas prices and generally the leadership of Gagauzia. The organizers showed up waving Russian flags. 

In a comical turn of events, no one showed up. Literally zero people. The 6 organizers begged the media to stay and cover them because they said that more people would be coming from the surrounding villages to join the protest. After one and a half hours zero people had showed up and the organizers were left waving Russian flags very much on their own. 

While it’s not known what this group represents, the tactic of creating supposedly grass-roots protest movements to drive pro-Russian sentiment during a crisis is a well known part of the Russian toolkit. Whatever this was, it failed badly. But if Russian agents do seek to destabilize Moldova, events like this are important to watch. 

What’s Next?

Right now, the whole world is watching and waiting for Putin’s next move. Western Governments have been announcing sanctions and Moldovan press and civil society are now closely focused on the crisis. If the public warnings of NATO governments are to be believed we are in the very early stages of what could be the largest conflict in Europe since the second world war. How Moldova fits into this remains to be seen and we will keep updates coming from Moldova Matters as things unfold. 

We’ll continue sending Quick Hits as updates with relevant new information as it comes! In the meantime, share Moldova Matters with your friends and colleagues who are following this region and who also believe that Moldova does Matter.