Quick Hit - Russia Ukraine Crisis #1

Tuesday February 15th

Welcome back to Moldova Matters. This week we’re starting a new format called “Quick Hits” where we will write important updates on evolving stories during the week. For now, we’ll use this format to keep more regular updates moving on the Russia - Ukraine crisis and specifically how this impacts Moldova. 

Latest on the Crisis

In the time since the Weekly Roundup on Sunday events have begun to move even faster in the Russia instigated Ukraine crisis. CBS News reports US intelligence having been shared with NATO allies showing that Putin has told his top generals to be ready to go on Wednesday February 16th. While this date is now being broadly reported the White House stresses that this is not their official estimate but that Russia may begin operations at “any time.” Meanwhile we are seeing increased troop movements as Russian tanks, military vehicles and aircraft move out of their camps and into staging areas along the border. 

Ukrainian Airspace Closing? Or is it?

On February 12 Dutch carrier KLM canceled all flights to Ukraine. Following this international insurance companies pulled coverage for flights to Ukraine. In one case, a Ukrainian SkyUp flight was diverted to land in Chisinau as the Irish leasing company who owned the plane refused permission to enter Ukrainian airspace after the plan had already taken off from Portugal. In order to keep flights moving the Ukrainian government allocated nearly $600 million dollars to insure flights themselves. As of writing the skies of Ukraine still have operational passenger jets. Though they are mixed in with US Air Force GlobalHawks and other surveillance aircraft watching the Russian border. 

Diplomatic Evacuations in Kyiv are Ongoing

The US Embassy announced it was fully relocating to Lviv and that all personnel have left Kyiv bringing with them documents and sensitive equipment and destroying what is left behind. Meanwhile, Ukrainian news has reported an unprecedented outflow of private jets from Kyiv with over 20 on February 13th alone. The country’s wealthy elites are flying to the EU. In one case, the leader of the Ukrainian “For Life” pro-Russian opposition political party chartered a 50 seat plane to fly out all their politicians and their families. A worrying sign for sure. 

National Day of Unity

Ukrainian President Zelenski has designated February 16th as a national day of unity. He calls all Ukrainians to fly the Ukrainian flag and wear ribbons in the national colors. Zelenski called all businessmen and politicians who have fled to return in 24 hours to show their patriotism. In the speech the President assured the nation that the armed forces are ready for whatever comes. 

Moldovan Reactions

This week, we have begun to see statements from Moldova’s most senior leadership reacting to the building crisis and seeking to assure Moldovans. Here are summaries of their statements:

President Maia Sandu

President Sandu released a filmed presidential address in which she addressed the nation in both Romanian and Russian. She opened by noting that Moldova’s firm desire is to work on domestic issues for the benefit of citizens but that she needed to address the growing risk of military conflict in Ukraine. The following is the printed readout of the address released online: 

"For the Republic of Moldova, peace and stability in the region are very important. They allow us to focus on solving the problems of the country and the citizens. These days, however, we are keeping an eye on Ukraine. We are deeply concerned about the tense situation on the border of the neighboring friendly country. Together with the Government and Parliament, we examine the development scenarios of the crisis and assess the risks they pose. The priority of our state is the life and safety of our people. In such moments, we must stand together in solidarity and unity. I urge you not to be manipulated by the propaganda that cultivates division, not to allow hatred to take root in our society. Regardless of the language we speak, our political preferences, we are all citizens of the Republic of Moldova. I hope that tensions in the region will be managed through dialogue and diplomatic negotiations because we know how high the price of war is. It is a price that no country should pay. Peace is the guarantee of the future of the region and of our country "

Additionally, During the speech the President spoke directly to Moldovan citizens in Transnistria saying the following: 

“I want to remind you we are a peaceful country and the principle of neutrality is very important to us. Nobody in Moldova wants to go to war with anyone. We are building a modern flourishing state where all citizens are equal under the law where we defend the rights of citizens, and this state has a future. All state agencies are doing everything possible in order to plan for any risks and scenarios. Keeping in mind the risks of war in Ukraine.”

Prime Minister Natalia Gavrilita

In an interview this week Prime Minister Garvilita responded to a question about how the country could manage a conflict scenario. Specifically, she was asked if Moldova would consider requesting military aid from Romania. The Prime Minister responded that Moldova is a “neutral country with a frozen conflict.” She said that at this time Moldovan analysis does not show any movements indicating a thaw in that conflict or the threat of hostilities for Moldova. At the same time the government is analyzing and preparing for any scenario. She noted that given the fact that they do not see a threat at this time and that Moldova is a neutral country it is “highly improbable” that there would be any requests to Romania for military aid. 

Speaker of Parliament Igor Grosu 

Speaker Grosu stated that the authorities currently do not see signs that would indicate a likely military threat to Moldova. He said “I am not saying that we should relax” and noted that they are currently planning for various scenarios. 

Minister of Defense Anatolie Nosatii

This week the Minister of Defense gave a lengthy interview to ZdG during which he answered questions about the crisis. For brevity we will print a synopsis / paraphrasing of selected questions and answers. 

Q: What is the state of the army? How many troops can be mobilized?

A: The army is trained and working normally to defend the integrity and sovereignty of the state. There are currently 6500 regular army troops with an additional 2000 civilian employees. In a case of emergency reserves can be called up to draw on the large pool of people aged 18 - 65. 

Q: What allies from outside Moldova can we rely on for our defense?

A: Moldova relies on itself. We are a neutral country and can’t bet on anyone. We rely on ourselves and international institutions [diplomacy].

Q: Has Moldova asked for NATO support in the crisis?

A: As a neutral country we cannot ask them to defend us. There is no urgent aid mechanism in the relationship between Moldova and NATO. 

Q: The Baltics are all helping Ukraine. What is Moldova doing?

A: Leadership has made their announcements. We are neutral and want peace.

Q: There is talk in the press about destabilization being prepared in Transnistria. How is Moldova following this and monitoring these "exercises?"

A: The Ministry of Defense is watching very closely. The number of exercises is "worrying"

Q: Does MD have enough budget for the military?

A: No agency in Moldova has enough budget. We are in a quiet neighborhood and governments have underfunded defense for a long time. Most of the equipment is inherited from the USSR and has not been upgraded. We are where we are.

Analysis

From the statements above we can see a few clear themes. Firstly, the government wishes to reassure citizens that they are monitoring the crisis and making plans. Secondly, that there is no immediate danger to Moldova or signs of threatening activity from Transnistria (though the Minister of Defense did find new exercises there “worrying”). Thirdly, Moldova is a neutral country interested in peace and engaged in diplomacy. 

The President’s address dug a bit deeper into the potential fault lines that a conflict could expose. She specifically spoke in both Romanian and Russian and appealed to citizens across language, ethnicity, nationality and religion that in a crisis Moldova needs to be united. This highlights the worry that we have noted before in Moldova Matters that any conflict close to Moldova’s borders runs a risk of setting off interethnic tensions in Moldova particularly in pro-Russian regions such as Transnistria and Gagauzia. 

US Embassy Travel Advisory

On the morning of February 15th the US State Department updated its Travel Advisory for Moldova. Read the full update here. 

“Level 4 Do Not Travel” - Threats from COVID-19, Unusual and concerning Russian military activity around Ukraine, Unresolved Conflict with Transnistria. US Citizens in Transnistria should depart immediately. 

This has been mis-reported in segments of the local as well as international press to be a call for US Citizens to leave Moldova. That is not the case as the departure warning is only for the Transnistria region. Moldova has been at “Level 4 Do Not Travel” for around 2 years due to the COVID-19 pandemic. This update added 2 things to the one that was in place yesterday. First, an additional justification for “Do Not Travel” with “Unusual and concerning Russian military activity around Ukraine.” And Secondly, a call for citizens to depart from Transnistria immediately. 

We’ll continue sending Quick Hits as updates with relevant new information as it comes! In the meantime, share Moldova Matters with your friends and colleagues who are following this region and who also believe that Moldova does Matter.