Quick Hit - Bombing Across Ukraine
October 10, 2022
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Moldovan Airspace Violated by 3 Russian Missiles
This morning the Moldovan Ministry of Defense reported that 3 missiles fired by Russian forces in the Black Sea flew over the regions of Ribnita, Floresti and Soroca on their way to hit targets in western Ukraine. In each case the missiles flew primarily in Ukraine, presumably close to the Moldova (Transnistria) - Ukraine border before cutting across northern Moldova and then back into Ukraine towards their targets.
Minister of Defense Anatolie Nosatii answered questions from the press stating that authorities are considering the possibility of closing Moldovan airspace again but left it ambiguous if they would do so. He noted that the authorities do not currently know why Russia chose to use Moldovan airspace. Asked whether Moldova has air defense capable of shooting down such missiles the Minister noted that Moldova has radar capable of detecting them. He did not directly respond to whether Moldova has air defenses (the assumption is “no” or maybe a few aging units to protect the capital).
Meanwhile, the Minister of Foreign Affairs Nicu Popescu urgently summoned the Russian Ambassador to demand explanations. The Minister stated:
“Moldova considers this incident to be extremely serious and regrettable, and no doubt causing additional tension. Violation of our national airspace is completely unacceptable,”
Background - a Day of Terror in Ukraine
On Sunday sections of the Kerch Straight Bridge connecting occupied Crimea to Russia were destroyed. Ukraine has not yet officially claimed responsibility but they have largely been credited with this major strategic strike both by the international and Russian press. The bridge was hundreds of kilometers out of range of any munitions the Ukrainian army is known to have, leading to lots of speculation as to how this might have been accomplished.
Following this humiliating blow to Russia, Putin denounced Ukraine as a “terrorist state” and Russia proceeded to launch a massive attack against civilian infrastructure all across Ukraine this morning. They have hit busy intersections, parks, apartment buildings and civilian infrastructure resulting in reports of blackouts even in far western Ukraine where Lviv and other cities were targeted. Downtown Kyiv was hit multiple times. President Zelensky has made a statement saying that across the country Russia is hitting civilian targets aimed at maximum casualties and energy infrastructure.
The missiles that passed over Moldova were clearly part of this large barrage against civilian targets in Ukraine. Clearly, the Russian military consciously chose to violate Moldovan airspace - perhaps as a warning to the Moldovan government as the next deadline for a potential gas shutoff (October 20th) comes up. Ukrainian military authorities claim that they intercepted around 1/2 of the incoming missiles this morning. Given the broad use of air defense weapons and new possibility of incoming missiles from Moldova it is possible, but not certain, the the government will chose to close Moldovan airspace again as a precaution. Right now Moldova has only a small air corridor open with Romania (directly west from Chisinau) and so no commercial flights would have been anywhere near these missile paths. At the same time, this is a new and concerning development with Russia brazenly flaunting Moldovan neutrality.
We’ll follow the situation and bring more updates in the upcoming Weekly Roundup.
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Praying for the people of Moldova and Ukraine and for you, David, as you endure this uncertainty and unspeakable anxiety surrounding the actions of the Russian military, especially those at the top. From what we are reading, many of the guys on the front lines don't really want to be there or have the desire to kill Ukranians or anyone else.