Quick Hit #18: Tensions Ahead of Victory Day

May 8, 2022

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What news will Victory Day bring?

That’s the question being asked around the world and all across Moldova. May 9th is the day that Russia and many former Soviet states celebrate victory over Nazi Germany in WW2. While the tradition of honoring veterans goes back to the war itself, Putin has shifted the meaning of this holiday over the last decade as a centerpiece of his project of turning Russia into a truly authoritarian state. Victory day has come to be an unabashed symbol of Russian imperial ambition and military strength.

Internationally, there seems to be a consensus that May 9th will be a pivotal day in the Russia - Ukraine war. For months, many have speculated that Putin wanted to use May 9th as a day to declare victory in Ukraine. Now, it is clear that is impossible. Russian forces are barely advancing and in many cases losing ground all across the country. AzovStal and Mariupol still stand and Russia has not even taken a major city since the first days of the war. Putin and the Russian military have very little to show for the massive expenditure of lives and treasure in Ukraine. At the same time they show no signs of backing down or substantially revising their war aims.

So what will happen May 9th? Given the huge patriotic significance of the day it is clear that Putin will use it to send a message. Here are a few scenarios for what that might be:

1. Declaration of War and National Mobilization - Putin could declare war on Ukraine and end the “special operation.” This would allow him to begin a national mobilization and conscription of fresh troops for the fight.

2. Partial Mobilization - Putin may announce a partial mobilization without a declaration of war. This may entail a new program of voluntary recruitment to the army and setting key national industries on a war footing without full military conscription.

3. Declaring Limited Victories (Status Quo) - Putin may chose to lie and present some fictional victories to the Russian people. This would strengthen Russian propaganda efforts while signaling a continued attempt by Russia to win the war with the troops it already has deployed.

Ukraine and the UK have both suggested that they think Putin will declare war and begin mobilization. Ukraine cites “partner’s special services” as the source of their information and may in fact be referring to the UK.

What would mobilization mean for the war?

Right now, Russian troops continue to perform poorly all across Ukraine. A major problem is a lack of infantry to support their armored units. National mobilization would move towards solving this issue but would not be able to rush units to the front until they have been called up and trained - a process that would take months. So short and medium term even this dramatic move would not have much effect except to signal Russia’s desire to win this war at all costs and on a longer timetable.

At the same time, this move would have profound risks for Putin. Currently, Russian propaganda has convinced many if not most Russians that the “special operation” is going well. A declaration of war would signal profound weakness and undercut this narrative. Furthermore, it is very noteworthy that not a single Russian from Moscow or St. Petersburg has died in Ukraine. Putin is carefully recruiting and sending troops from poor, remote regions of Russia into this war. He has shown serious concern about the potential domestic response if coffins start arriving in Moscow.

What else does victory day have in store?

In addition to concrete actions such as mobilization orders or specific military or economic policies, Putin is likely to use May 9th to frame the war for the Russian people. The whole world will parse statements and speeches from Kremlin officials to see if there are suggestions of revised war aims or other changes to the way that Putin wants the war to be viewed in Russia.

Moldova in particular is watching this date very closely, both for domestic political reasons and to understand better Putin’s intentions.

Lead up to Victory Day - Tension in Moldova

In the week leading up to Victory Day, Moldovans have seen increased instability in their neighborhood. Russia once again struck the Zatoka bridge near Odessa with 3 missiles. The bridge had previously been reported to be destroyed so it’s unclear if the strike was designed to do further damage or was an attack on repair efforts.

Odessa has also been struck multiple times in the last week with targets ranging from the regional airport which had its runway destroyed to civilian infrastructure and housing.

Meanwhile, in Transnistria the situation remains very tense. The whole region remains in a “Code Red” alert for potential terrorism and checkpoints and military positions have popped up to control roads and critical infrastructure.

MilitaryLand.net @Militarylandnet

📽️🇲🇩Dniester Special Rapid Response Unit has been deployed to checkpoints in #Transnistria

This week, Transnistrian authorities announced the discovery of a drone that had crashed and was carry explosives. Additionally, multiple finds of ammunition and military gear were found in dumpsters across the region.

On May 7th, multiple explosions occurred in the town of Varancau at the site of an unused airstrip. These were small bombs dropped from drones and they caused no casualties. Transnistrian authorities blame Ukraine for all of these attacks.

Addressing the attacks, President Sandu said:

“According to our information, two explosions occurred in Pridnestrovie last night in the area of ​​​​the former military airfield near the village of Varancau, Ribnita region. The explosions took place between 22:00 and 22:50. There were no casualties. These explosions were carried out by a drone. Our institutions continue to collect information,”

“The safety of citizens on the left and right banks of the Dniester is very important to us. We are doing everything possible to prevent destabilization of the situation in our country,”

“Our analysis and analysis of our partners show that nothing threatens Moldova today, but we remain vigilant. The priority of the authorities is to preserve the peace, life and security of citizens,”

Prime Minister Gavrilita also commented on the security situation. In addition to reiterating that the government sees no immediate threat to Moldova she addressed the possibility of Moldova being dragged into the war saying:

“[Moldovan involvement] would mean that a neutral country is involved in the war, which never wanted and did not make any efforts to join NATO."

“Think about European public opinion: what will happen, what will be the reactions. We also have many citizens with dual citizenship. They have Romanian citizenship - an EU member state, a NATO member state, so everyone is helping us to keep a close eye on the situation. We, the government, are making every diplomatic effort to maintain calm and prevent the escalation of hostilities on the territory of Moldova,”

The Prime Minister was also asked how Moldova would defend itself if attacked, she said:

“I do not want to discuss such hypothetical scenarios. It is clear that without the help of our partners we will not last long. At the same time, there is no immediate threat, and the involvement of Moldova in the war would mean a much wider involvement of several states.”

This comment in particular turned heads as it seemed to imply that Moldovan involvement would trigger military action by other countries. Moldova has no such alliances and up until this point nothing in terms of security guarantees has been announced by Moldova or any other state. It is possible here that the Prime Minister was simply speculating (hypothetically) that an expansion of the war would necessitate more action from European powers. She did not clarify her comments further so we can only speculate on their meaning.

In light of the ongoing attacks in Transnistria, many younger people are leaving the region, packing their bags and heading to Chisinau. When asked about their motivations the common thread is a worry that martial law and mobilization will be declared in Transnistria closing the borders to men of fighting age.

Cyberattacks in Moldova

In addition to exploding bombs in Transnistria, Moldova suffered multiple cyberattacks in the last week. Moldova’s Security and Information Service (SIS) announced attacks on government websites and had the following statements:

"The cyber attack is attributed to the pro-Russian group KILLNET, which operates on the principles of hacktivism and specializes in carrying out DDoS attacks on countries that they consider to be supporters of Ukraine. The group carried out similar attacks on other web pages of some EU authorities and on the NATO web infrastructure, and in recent days the web pages of public entities in Romania were attacked "

Meanwhile, at least some companies reported attacks as well with the Moldovan company Pesoto emailing its customers and explaining that due to ongoing DDoS attacks their site may be inaccessible.

International Response

NATO deputy secretary general Mircea Geoana had the following to say about Moldova this week:

“We do not see a real military threat to Moldova or Georgia, which is also under pressure from Russia. However, we expect false flag provocations designed not so much to pose a threat to Moldova, but to interfere with Ukrainian troops in eastern Ukraine, in the Odessa region. Therefore, we are closely monitoring the situation and do not note, I repeat, a military threat against Moldova,”

Meanwhile, the EU has announced that it will begin providing military aid to Moldova. Charles Michel, President of the European Council, visited Moldova this week and stated the following:

“With regard to military assistance to Moldova, we intend to strengthen support for logistics, cybersecurity. But today we discussed how we can provide Moldova with more military assistance to strengthen the defense capability of Moldova. Of course, I won't go into the details of these decisions just yet. It is important for us now to avoid an escalation of the conflict,”

The EU later clarified and stressed that they would not be providing any lethal arms to Moldova but would focus on medical, logistical and defensive equipment.

Moldova will host an additional high level diplomatic visitor on May 9th as the UN Secretary General António Guterres will be in Chisinau. He is going to meet with the country’s top leadership and visit refugee support centers.

Information War

With all that is happening in Moldova and Ukraine people are jumping at rumors. This tension and worry is fueled by information warfare and propaganda efforts being waged by Russia to destabilize Moldova.

In one case, young men of Military age living in northern Moldova began receiving official looking conscription orders in the mail. One person posted this notice online and it immediately spread around Moldova causing worry and rumors. After an investigation, it was found that these certificates were forged by one of the men’s mothers as a practical joke. She stamped them with the official stamp of the school she worked at and sent them to her son and his friends. Needless to say this joke was not found to be very funny and the woman now faces criminal charges and penalties that may result in a fine of 47,500 lei, 180 to 240 community service hours, or up to 5 years in prison.

While this may have been a case of one person with a very poor ability to “read the room” other cases are clearly more nefarious. Fake screenshots purporting to show a future edition of a Transnistrian newspapers are one example. The paper, dated May 2nd discussed the aftermath of bloody attacks with "dozens killed.” No such attack happened on May 2nd and authorities on both sides of the river tried their best to spread the word that information like this is fake.

In Moldova, the border police had to deny persistent rumors that Moldova would close the borders to men of fighting age on May 9th.

In general, this information campaign is targeted at making people fear what might happen on May 9.

The Sunday Times, printed a story that they admitted they could not confirm suggesting Russia attacking Moldova on May 9th. In the scenario described, Russian special services would agitate civil unrest in Moldova while special forces would conduct a large scale helicopter landing in Tiraspol. Then, Putin would recognize Transnistria as an independent country on victory day. To say that this story was poor journalism is a major understatement. The authors confused the right and left bank of the Nistru and barely addressed the impossibility of Russian troops flying into Transnistria over Ukrainian air defenses. At the same time, stories like this rapidly spread in Moldova and have people looking to May 9th with apprehension.

What will happen on May 9?

President Sandu and the government have sought to project confidence and calm ahead of the holiday. The President made multiple addresses in the last week calling on people to view May 9th not as a militaristic celebration of arms but as a celebration of peace. The goal is to emphasize that defeat of Nazi Germany brought peace to Europe and this is the real meaning of the day.

At the same time, the President has assured society that the authorities are ready for provocations or civil disturbance. She stated:

"Law enforcement agencies are on duty. On the eve of May 9 and on this day, our institutions will do everything to prevent destabilization and actions that could increase risks. We are confident that our institutions will be able to ensure public order and the safety of citizens,”

Parades and demonstrations have not been canceled and the Socialists and Communists plan to march to mark the day as they do every year.

The People’s Ombudsman for Human Rights has called on all parties to show responsibility and restraint noting the following:

“We believe that this year, during the events, provocations, intimidation, incitement of hatred and violence are possible, which, among other things, may provoke the use of prohibited symbols by the participants in these events,”

“Europe Day” celebrations, a holiday that also falls on May 9th has been rescheduled to May 14th this year most likely in order to give people fewer reasons to leave their home tomorrow.

The Socialists Plan Marches

The pro-Russian Socialist and Communist parties both plan to mark May 9th with marches and demonstrations. Neither party has openly supported Russia’s war in Ukraine and while there is much tension around the holiday neither has a clear message to deliver about the war itself. Instead, pro-Russian opposition parties have focused on the new law banning “militaristic symbols” including the Z, V and St. George’s Ribbon. In particular, the Socialists have promised to defy the law and march with the ribbon tomorrow. Former President Igor Dodon said the following:

“As promised, on May 9, I will traditionally take part in the Victory March with my family. We will put on the St. George ribbon. I do not urge everyone to do the same - everyone must make a decision for themselves. If I am fined, I will appeal to the European Court of Human Rights and ask everyone who is fined to do the same. I am sure that we will cancel this law,”

He also said that, thanks to this ban and their efforts to oppose it, the St. George’s Ribbon will become a "symbol of all those who oppose Maia Sandu and PAS." Given that this ribbon is the primary symbol of the Russian army in their 8 year war against Ukraine it seems Mr. Dodon is saying the quiet part out loud here.

Support for the ribbon extends beyond Mr. Dodon, with the Bashkhan (governor) of Gagauzia signing a law this week allowing the use of the symbol in defiance of the central government. The Socialists also appealed the ban to the Constitutional Court but lost the case with the court upholding the ban.

In concrete terms, one of the most closely watched aspects of the holiday will be who chooses to break the law and display symbols of Russian aggression and how will the police respond.

Looking Ahead

With all the provocations, attacks, rumors, propaganda and political positioning that have led up to May 9th it is fair to say the situation in Moldova is very tense. We don’t know what Putin will say tomorrow. We don’t know if there will be more attack or provocations Transnistria. It’s fair to say that rumors of Russian attacks and helicopter landings are not rooted in any objective reality. But that doesn’t mean people don’t worry about these stories.

One potential result of the day hasn’t been much discussed and deserves more attention. It’s possible that nothing much happens in Moldova. The Socialists and Communists march every year and it’s possible this will be more tense with people displaying banned symbols and receiving fines. Just how bold and confrontational these marches will be is an open question though. Russian troops are not anywhere close to their objective of capturing Odessa and linking up with Transnistria. It’s possible that pro-Russian proxies understand this situation well and won’t want to expose themselves to serious legal consequences at a time where support from Russia is so far away. There will be many speeches and statements for sure, but we should be open to the possibility that little of consequence happens in Moldova.

At the same time, how Russia and Putin mark the holiday should send strong signals about what is next in the war. How Ukraine marks the holiday is also an open question. If ever there was a day to embarrass Putin with a bold attack on Russian troops or infrastructure it would be tomorrow. Heavy symbolism is in the air and all sides are likely to adapt their plans to this fact. We will all have to wait and see what the day has in store.

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