Quick Hit #11 War in Ukraine
March 21
Welcome back to Moldova Matters. This week we’re continuing our new format called “Quick Hits” where we will write important updates on evolving stories during the week. For now, we’ll use this format to keep more regular updates moving on the Russia - Ukraine crisis and specifically how this impacts Moldova.
A quick note - the original intention was to roll out these Quick Hit articles more frequently than we are managing. The refugee response has absorbed a huge amount of time and limited Moldova Matters posts. The hope is that we’ll get more posts out over the course of this week and next. Sorry for the slow rate of updates. If you are in a position to donate to refugee relief in Moldova please consider giving to Friends of Moldova at this link.
Progress of the War
Since our last update, Russian forces have continued to stall on all fronts of advance. It appears that Russian forces have been unable to overcome stiff Ukrainian resistance in all sectors and have resorted to the heavy bombardment of cities where they are in artillery range or can strike with long distance missiles. The plan appears to be shifting so that cities that resist will be leveled. Mariupol is by far the hardest hit but is still holding out. These scenes are from Kyiv today:
Military analyst Michael Kofman was one of the earliest voices predicting a full scale Russian invasion pursuing maximalist aims as far back at October and November. His latest update (in a twitter thread well worth reading) assess that the Russian army will be exhausted on all fronts after a few more weeks of fighting and will be required to take an operational pause to re-arm and reorganize. Specifically, especially for Moldova, he notes the following (from his thread):
In the southwest there was a fitful advance around Mykolaiv towards Odesa that had little chance of success given the paucity of forces employed. This has been set back by a UKR counter offensive. I expect little progress there for either side and more of a shifting front. 3/
This means we're not going to see an amphibious landing at Odesa, or a Russian march to Transnistria, anytime soon (if ever). At least not in this phase of the war.
This highlights how Ukraine’s tough resistance and Russia’s failure to properly supply their troops has created a situation where Odessa and Moldova are both sheltered behind Ukrainian lines that seem to be in a position to hold. At the same time, Odessa was shelled this morning from at least 2 Russian warships which targeted residential buildings. It’s likely some version of this will continue as Russian forces seek to terrorize the city.
Meanwhile, sanctions are biting hard in Russia and many videos surfaced this week showing Russian standing in long lines to buy staples such as sugar.
The Ukrainian Military has reported that Belarusian troops are likely to enter the war by attacking western Ukraine very soon. One potential indication of this move was the evacuation of the Belarusian Embassy from Ukraine with their diplomats crossing into a transiting Moldova. At his exit the Ukrainian border guards were filmed delivering him this message.
“the head of the border service of Ukraine, Sergei Deineko, asked me to convey warm greetings to the head of the border committee of Belarus, Alexander Lappo.” [he then fills a bag with 30 pieces of silver and throws it at the departing Ambassador]
Putin’s Speech
Putin gave a deeply frightening speech this week with language strongly reminiscent of fascist Germany.
“The Russian people will always be able to distinguish true patriots from scum and traitors and simply spit them out like a fly that accidentally flew into their mouths,” …“I am convinced that such a natural and necessary self-purification of society will only strengthen our country, our solidarity, cohesion and readiness to respond to any challenges.”
For anyone interested in a podcast that takes a deep dive into Putin’s intellectual and moral influences and attempts to understand the man as a creature of the 1850s or 1930s rather than the modern world - check out this episode of the Ezra Klein show.
Moldovan News
President Sandu addressed the nation this week outlining the situation as it stands and anti-crisis efforts being planned and undertaken to support Moldovans and the economy. Here is a short excerpt of her message:
“The war in Ukraine has provoked a new crisis, the consequences of which will be felt by our country for a long time to come. We all see rising prices for consumer goods and fuel. Imports and exports to the East have stopped, and this puts pressure on both consumers and Moldovan businesses,”
“We will endure, as our parents and our ancestors survived the troubles and survived. I promise: no matter how difficult it is for all of us, the state will be next to the citizens. We will act humanely, prudently and responsibly, and together we will emerge from this crisis stronger,”
To date, Moldova has had a message of neutrality, verbal support for Ukraine, support for refugees and calls for solidarity in society. Now we see that these messages are being taken together and the nation is being prepared for a longer lasting crisis with many different components stemming from the war.
Mr Dodon also had a message for the country this week:
“You need to be friends with Russia, with Putin. We must maintain good relations with everyone. This difficult period will pass, there is no need to burn bridges with anyone.”
He stressed that Russia will survive and the west will lose more from the sanctions than Russia will in the short and medium term. Essentially, he is predicting that Russia will win the economic war and that Moldova needs to be prepared to benefit from the bounty resulting from a trade relationship with Russia. The former president is once again, to a fault, willing to parrot the Kremlin line.
Meanwhile, initial polls conducted in Moldova show a fairly mixed situation in terms of public opinion about the war. A CBS-AXA poll found 39.3% of Moldovans found Russia responsible for the war; 20.6% saying Ukraine was responsible; and 40.1% refusing the answer. Additionally a poll conducted by Magenta Consulting found 51% of respondents supporting Ukraine in this war with 20% supporting Russia (others being undecided, refusing to answer, etc). It’s hard to know what to make of these numbers overall. Firstly, Moldovan polling tends to be very hit-or-miss and while both of these are trusted outlets the fact remains that it is hard to poll in Moldova. Even with that in mind it is important to realize that Russian TV and propaganda are still being piped into Moldova and it has an effect (more on that below).
Refugee Crisis in Moldova
The refugee crisis continues to be the main focus of both government and civil society in Moldova as the stream of people entering the country continues and it is becoming more and more apparent that Moldova will host many new residents for a medium or even long term period of time. Moldova continues to wait, expectantly and with a rising degree of frustration and disbelief, for the UNHCR or other large scale relief agencies to even begin having a meaningful impact in addressing the crisis.
At the same time, there are signs that Moldova is getting better organized internally. This week we saw this primarily with the government sidelining the increasingly rogue mayor of Chisinau and taking direct control of refugee support efforts. Mayor Ceban of Chisinau (previously a high ranking member of the pro-Russian Socialist Party led by Mr. Dodon) has been running the MoldExpo refugee reception center and attempting to run a totally independent and uncoordinated response. This has meant the government and city not cooperating on warehousing of donations and supplies and the Mayor striking an ever more aggressive tone leveraging the city’s response to criticize the national government. In one example this week, the Mayor sent busses from the city to collect refugees at the Palanca border crossing only to find that the National Transportation Agency and refugees themselves were unwilling to redirect from direct Romania busses to the city. The Mayor claimed that these refugees were being prevented from traveling to the city (untrue as there is a separate bus line run for this).
This exchange of political rhetoric was a last straw and the government seized the city refugee center and warehouses and put them under government control. Prime Minister Gavrilita cited multiple abuses and political schemes and stated the following:
“We regret that this situation has arisen. But we cannot allow this tragedy to be cynically used for political purposes,”
In further good news, Moldova has opened an air corridor starting today and commercial flights should begin leaving the Chisinau airport soon. The corridor goes directly west into Romania and will allow refugees and others to fly in and out of the capital soon.
To reiterate the scale of the crisis, Moldova is currently hosting 1368 refugees per 100,000 population. This is more than double Poland at 516 refugees / 100k and Slovakia at 430 refugees / 100k.
Transnistria and the War
The war is evolving in such a way that Odessa is not an immediate danger of Russian troops linking up with their comrades in Transnistria (for now). At the same time this is a major focus of worry and attention in Chisinau and Moldova more generally. Moldovan officials as well as NATO and the US Ambassador to Moldova continue to stress that they do not have intelligence that Moldova will be directly threatened in the near future. The NATO deputy secretary general stated the following:
“The Republic of Moldova is not a military target for Russia, we do not have data that would indicate this. We are watching what is happening in Transnistria, but today we have no data. This does not mean that Moldova is not under enormous pressure: refugees, high energy prices, propaganda and manipulation,”
While this is a relief, it is important to note that these statements are all directed at current operational conditions rather than trajectory of events or Russian intentions. British Prime Minister Boris Johnson stated what is a fairly obvious conclusion this week in the following:
“The end of freedom in Ukraine will mean the end of any hope for freedom in Georgia and Moldova. This will mark the beginning of an era of intimidation across Eastern Europe, from the Baltic to the Black Sea,”
Responding to a question about Transnistria’s military posture, Speaker of Parliament Igor Grosu noted that yes the Transnistrian military posture has changed with units digging defensive positions and preparing more for a defense against an incursion from the east (Ukraine). He also acknowledged reporting that the Russian army in Transnistria had raised a Soviet flag over their barracks and called it a “provocation.” At the same time he stuck to the government line:
"There is no threat of escalation of the conflict in Moldova,”
Meanwhile, Konstantin Zatulin, Deputy Head of the Russian State Duma Committee on CIS Affairs said that Russia does not plan on increasing the garrison in Transnistria at all but noted that they will "rebuff any attempt to resolve the conflict by force" [implying an attack from Moldova]. He said:
“Russia is now very close to Transnistria. The adventure on the part of Moldova can lead to the saddest consequences. This problem can be prevented simply by going to the border of Pridnestrovie [Transnistria] from the Ukrainian side, and this will all end,”
It is worth noting how similar this rhetoric is to Russian war justifications in the Donbas.
International Diplomacy
This week, the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe (PACE) expelled Russia and called for giving UA the means to protect its skies. Vote was 216 for, 3 abstained, no one against. They also recognized Transnistria as a “zone of Russian occupation,” a statement that Transnistrian “authorities” called “out of touch.”
Here is a picture of the Russian flag being lowered over the Council of Europe
In response to these moves President Sandu noted that Moldova has always called for the removal of Russian troops but stressed that Moldova believes in the peaceful resolution of the conflict.
Economic News
Note: in the last Quick Hit update we incorrectly stated that the EBRD had approved funds for Moldova stockpiling natural gas to prevent interruptions. In fact the EBRD is still in negotiations with Moldova but it is not approved. This has been updated on our site.
Economic effects of the war in neighboring Ukraine continue to be felt all through Moldova. Here is a quick roundup of stories on how this is playing out.
Moldova and Ukraine now connected to the EU electric grid - Recall that February 24 - 26 was scheduled as a multi day test for both Moldova and Ukraine to run their electric grids free of Russian interconnection. This decoupling was well timed (to say the least) and until this week the countries have continued in an expanded version of this test running a joint grid with a high level of stability. This week it was announced that both countries are now directly connected and synchronized with the EU (likely through western Ukraine).
Ukrainian ride hailing service Uklon suspends service in Moldova - The taxi company (similar to Uber) which was a new entrant into the Moldova market promised “we’ll be back!” but cited the war as a constraint. In Ukraine Uklon is providing free transport for medical supplies and military needs.
National Bank of Moldova raising the base rate - For the 3rd time this year the National Bank raised the base rate, this time from 10.5% to 12.5%. This is done to easy inflationary pressures in Moldova.
Real Estate Market in Moldova “froze” - Economists are saying that the war literally froze Moldova’s real estate market with pending sales and purchases of homes and other properties being deferred across the board as people waited to see what would happen. The last week has shown a slight recovery but more disruptions are predicted in weeks ahead.
Juice Producer Orhei-Vit lost 100,000 euros of product in Odessa - A Moldovan juice producer lost product that was stuck in Odessa due to the Russian blockade. Rather than let it spoil (or send it back) Ukrainian officials confiscated the products and sent them to front line cities.
Serious Supply Chain Disruptions - Moldova is experiencing serious disruptions in both imports and exports as a result of the war. In terms of incoming products, buckwheat is hardest hit as most products come from Ukraine and Russia. This has led to panic buying much to the dismay of local stores who had sufficient supplies but are being bought out by worried customers (remember - in the pandemic, Americans bought toilet paper, Moldovan’s bought buckwheat). Additionally, household appliances are projected to increase in price by 20-30% as key brands Samsung, LG and Whirpool Group all produce products in Russia. Fish, chicken and other agricultural products are under pressure as they largely come from Ukraine. Moldovan companies are setting up supply lines from western Ukraine but there is an issue - Moldovan drivers do not want to enter Ukraine, and Ukrainian drivers are prevented from leaving as most are military aged men. These are only a quick dose of the huge supply chain issues facing Moldova in these times of war.
Information War
Moldova is very much the target of an information war that Russia is waging to drive support for their political and military aims. This week the director of SIS gave a rare briefing on the topic saying the following:
“We notice the organized efforts of some internal and external forces aimed at dividing society regarding the situation with refugees, creating panic about the degree of provision of the internal market of Moldova with essential products,”
He noted the blocking of some outlets and the fining of others who violate the broadcast rules against propaganda funded by foreign states. The general message was “do not worry - SIS is on this.”
In a more complicated situation, the Russian Embassy has made a public call for reports by the Moldovan population of “cases of discrimination” against Russian speakers in Moldova. They say that such cases are increasing (with no evidence) and ask people to report this information to a hotline. While we don’t know the purpose of these calls it harkens to Soviet era denouncements and looks like many to be the manufacturing of a pretext for intervention.
Moldovans reacted decisively with online responses and calls to their line emphasizing the idea “no thank you - we do not want to be saved” (as well as a variety of more colorful responses). On social media lots of Romanian speaking Moldovans noted the major response against the Russian call by the Russian speaking population. Perhaps Moldova is finally working on a civil identity of its own.
President Sandu responded to the Russian Embassy saying:
“All Moldovan citizens, whether they speak Romanian or Russian, can feel safe in Moldova. And we do everything for the safety and well-being of every citizen. From the first days of this war, we have been calling for unity, we have been calling not to let hate speech divide us. And I thank all the people who followed this call and helped us to maintain unity. Moldova respects human rights, makes every effort to ensure that every citizen, no matter what language he speaks, feels safe at home,”
Well, at least some good news about an Odessa to Transnistria march. In the meantime, that buckwheat kasha for "dinner" at 2pm was one of my favorites.
Thank you very much for carving out time to provide an update. Very thorough.