President Sandu visits Kyiv on the 10th Anniversary of Euromaidan
President Sandu visits Kyiv on the 10th Anniversary of Euromaidan
Weekly Roundup: November 21, 2023
Welcome back to Moldova Matters. This week, we have another long roundup with updates on local elections, international affairs, and much more. If you haven’t already, please consider becoming a paid subscriber to Moldova Matters. It’s just $5 / month and really helps support the work that goes into this newsletter.
International Affairs
The biggest international story about Moldova in the last week concerned President Sandu’s dog Codrut. This is because Codrut bit the President of Austria’s hand while he was visiting the Presidency in Chisinau. Codrut is a rescue dog that the President adopted following a car accident where he lost a leg. President Alexander Van der Bellen of Austria was later seen attending meetings and press conferences wearing a bandage on his hand. And yes, of course there is video.
The story was broadly reported in international media with various puns (Politico’s “pawlitical scandal”) and the inevitable comparison’s to President Biden’s dog Commander. President Van der Bellen made it clear that there were no hard feelings saying:
“Anyone who knows me knows that I am a huge dog lover. And I can understand his reaction - he was nervous because there were so many people around him,”
He presented President Sandu with a small dog toy when he left Moldova.
Other International Affairs News
While the story of Codrut made a lot of news, there were some *slightly* more important news stories of the last week as well.
President Sandu visited Kyiv on November 21st, the 10th anniversary of the start of the Euromaidan protests. In Kyiv she met with President Zelenskyy and President of the European Council Charles Michel. They spoke about support for starting Moldova and Ukraine’s EU accession negotiations and paid tribute to those lost in the Revolution of Dignity and the years of war that followed. President Sandu stated:
“I am very pleased to be in Kyiv again with Mr. President Zelensky, while Ukraine continues to heroically resist Russia’s unprovoked invasion. I am also pleased to be with Mr. Chairman Michel, our friend and supporter. And especially now, when both our countries are in favor of a future within the EU. (...) On this significant anniversary, ten years after brave Ukrainians launched the wave of protests that became known as Euromaidan, I am proud to pay tribute to their legacy. They fought for a better life in Europe, where they would be free from Russian influence and would be able to independently determine their future. Some of them made the ultimate sacrifice. I bow to them with deep respect,”
British Foreign Secretary David Cameron visited Moldova last week. Moldova is only the 2nd country he has visited after his surprise elevation to the position, the first was Ukraine. While in Chisinau he met with President Sandu and they discussed corruption, most likely including Veaceslav Platon and other wanted criminals hiding in the UK. They also discussed Black Sea security and other regional security questions.
EU Commission releases report on Moldova. Following last week’s recommendation that the EU begin ascension negotiations, the European Commission released their report on Moldova’s progress and continued challenges. The report highlighted numerous issues, primarily around the economy and justice reform. Here are a few highlights:
Shadow Economy - It estimates that 40% of Moldova’s economy is informal (17% EU average).
State Owned Enterprises - Moldova has 900 state owned enterprises comprising 26% of GDP and employing 6% of the population. 40% of these companies are unprofitable.
Workforce - In Moldova, 40% of people over the age of 15 are employed (54% EU average).
Justice - Moldova has fewer judges per 100,000 population than the EU average (17 vs 22) but twice as many prosecutors (23 vs 12). Things are more normal with police officers at 334 / 100,000 people compared to the EU average of 335.
The report went on to cite problems with price controls, competition, barriers to entry and other deficiencies in economic regulation saying:
“Despite significant progress, Moldova’s business environment is characterized by widespread corruption, weak rule of law, weak institutional capacity and low quality of public services," …
“This is partly the result of heavy regulation, weak law enforcement and a lack of trust in government institutions. Tax evasion negatively affects budget revenues and at the same time distorts competition,”
The Kremlin has barred 11 PAS MPs from Entering Russia. The decision was delivered to the Moldovan Ambassador in Russia, but without any publicly reported reason. Based on subsequent statements, where the Ministry of Foreign Affairs promised to continue protecting Moldova’s information space in spite of efforts at intimidation, it appears to be a retaliation for Moldova blocking Russian news websites. Newly banned PAS MP Adriana Vlad responded saying: "PAS MPs have no intention of traveling to an aggressor state,"
The last 8 Moldovans in Gaza have been evacuated and have returned home. This marks the end of the evacuation of around 100 Moldovan citizens who were in the Gaza strip at the beginning of the war and requested evacuation.
Local Elections - Second Round Results
Last weekend the second round of local elections passed in a much quieter manner than the first round. The EU’s ENEMO election observation mission called the vote "generally well managed," and noted some small issues that didn’t affect the outcome of the vote. At the same time they reiterated previous concerns about the presence of illicit financing and use of administrative resources in the election. Police also continued searches related to the Chance party, again responding to calls from citizens notifying the police of attempts to bribe them with 50 euros / vote.
In the biggest race of the 2nd round, “Our Party” candidate Alexander Petkov defeated the Socialist candidate 59.63% to 40.37% to become Mayor of Balti. This race had notably low turnout of only 25% after the Supreme Court of Justice upheld the ejection of Shor’s “independent” candidate Arina Korsikova from the race.
In other major races, Shor linked “independent” candidates lost in Vulcănești (to the Socialists) and Comrat (to the independent incumbent).
Speaker of Parliament Grosu called the final outcomes a good showing for PAS. He called the election of 310 PAS mayors a mandate for the country’s European path. The CEC later qualified that PAS won 291 mayors races but supported 19 independents who also won. PAS failed to win mayorships in any of the countries 11 municipalities.
With no second round elections in Chisinau the various parties have been positioning themselves ahead of the investiture of the new city council. Mayor Ceban announced that he analyzed the election programs of the PAS and Socialist parties in the city and that he was willing to work with each group on about 60% of their proposals. He called on all parties to work together for the city. PAS has indicated that they see their position in the city council as primarily in opposition to the mayor.
The Socialists meanwhile reshuffled their party list and have announced that former President Igor Dodon will represent them in the city council. Additionally, current MP Adrian Lebedinsky will resign from parliament to join the city council for the Socialists. The movement of major politicians out of parliament and leadership positions to the city council indicates that the Socialists also look forward to a combative relationship with the Mayor.
Politics
Outside of local elections, and the Codrut - bites the Austrian President news, the main news of the week politically has been the re-entry into politics of former Gagauzian Bashkan Irina Vlah. This week she announced the creation of a public association "Platform Moldova." This isn’t a political party, and Vlah did not lay out any kind of electoral program other than opposing PAS and desiring to “unite the opposition.” In her announcement she spoke of Moldova’s future in Europe and sought to present herself as a pragmatic pro-EU politician. Asked by a journalist if she intends to run for President she was evasive, but left the option open saying that it is likely that President Sandu will lose in the second round and that the winner “could be a woman.” It is fair to say that the statement was far from Shermanesque.
PAS MP and chair of the Committee on the Economy and Budget Radu Marian posted comments on the announcement saying:
“Irina Vlah has represented the interests of the Kremlin throughout her political career. She regularly met with Putin and other Kremlin officials and received instructions from them for her speeches. Irina Vlah supports the Kremlin, which kills children, women, elderly people, and throws bombs at hospitals and schools. (...) Now the “Kremlin Platform” is trying to convince us that they are very repentant and swear by their European belonging. This is the instruction received from Moscow,”
Irina Vlah denounced the statements saying that they show the MP’s “level of education.”
However, political experts interviewed by Newsmaker agree that Vlah most likely remains a Kremlin project. Vlah served in Parliament from 2009 - 2014 with the Communists until she left the party accusing them of collaboration with “pro-European” forces. Subsequently she ran for Bashkan as an independent but with heavy support from the Socialists. Vlah has taken heavily pro-Russian stances over the years with visits to the Kremlin and many photos with senior Russian officials. Her first election slogan, seen below, was “be together with Russia - we have the strength [to do it / be with Russia].”
In the last few years Vlah has tried to pivot away from this past and establish herself as a pragmatic pro-European politician. Experts believe that “national sovereignty” and “neutrality” will likely be core to her message.
Other Political News
Here’s a rapid fire roundup of the other political stories making headlines this week:
Romanian press report that Mayor Ion Ceban traveled to Bucharest and met with Romanian Prime Minister Marcel Ciolacu. The meeting was unofficial and on neither politician’s public agendas. Mayor Ceban stated only that he was in Bucharest on private business but that he had several productive meetings. Romanian journalists report that the meeting was about a potential merger of Ceban’s MAN party with the Social Democratic Party of Europe (PSDE). The PSDE was formerly called the Democratic Party of Moldova PDM when it was run by Plahotniuc. PSDE is a partner of the ruling Romanian Social Democratic Party (PSD).
Author’s Note: This Romanian press report is unconfirmed and has been denied by all parties that commented. That said, this area is something to watch. It was very curious that the MAN party did not even attempt to compete in the local elections outside of Chisinau. It seems likely that Ceban will need allies in order to compete nationally in the presidential elections. It is also well known that the Romanian PSD party which was close with Plahotniuc has a standoffish relationship with PAS. With local elections over we should expect a period of political maneuvering and realignment to begin within the opposition.
Former Prime Minister Natalia Gavrilitsa started a think tank called "Partnership for a New Economy." The former PM has partnered with Former Justice Minister Sergiu Litvinenco, and Political Scientist Victor Ciobanu to start the think tank. Their stated goal is to develop solutions and mobilize people to support a strong and sustainable economy.
Minister of Culture Sergiu Prodan spoke on the 120th anniversary of the Chisinau Pogrom. The Minister spoke of the importance of remembering and learning from past horrors. He stated:
“To prevent such horrors from happening again, we must tell current and future generations about them. We must decisively fight hatred and disinformation,"
Security and Defense
Here’s a rapid fire roundup of the security and defense stories making headlines this week:
Partners provide Moldova with additional military equipment. The last of 19 Piranha 3H armored personnel carriers have been delivered to the National Army from Germany. Minister of Defense Anatolie Nosatii also stated that the Army will receive their first air-defense systems by the end of the year. The Minister explained that air defense capabilities will come gradually with radars and some unnamed interceptors delivered this year and more next.
SIS plays whack-a-mole with Russian propaganda sites. 5 of the banned Russian media sites returned as clones “almost immediately” and security services continue working to combat duplicate sites.
The BBC reported that around 20,000 men have fled Ukraine since the beginning of the war and 21,000 have been caught in the attempt. Of those who fled, Moldova was one of the most common crossing points with men swimming the Nistru river or walking across Transnistria and then swimming. Since February 2022 Moldovan border guards have returned 35 Ukrainians caught attempting illegal crossings. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs has clarified that Moldova does not extradite Ukrainians fleeing military service and that Ukraine has not requested Moldova do so. Ukrainian men arriving in Moldova have 24 hours to apply for asylum after which they cannot be extradited unless they are deemed to pose a threat to Moldova’s national security.
Crime, Corruption and Justice Reform
Here are the top justice related stories of the week:
Searches conducted against 4 judges suspected of corruption. Interim Prosecutor General Ion Munteanu requested permission from the Superior Council of Magistrates SCM to conduct searches and possibly arrest 4 judges. Searches were approved and Anti-Corruption Prosecutor Dragalin was also reported as being present at the meetings. Following searches 2 judges were detained. Reports indicate that these represent 4 separate cases of corruption and abuse of power. The most famous of those arrested is Judge Harry Bivol who was previously implicated in the “Russian laundromat” where he participated in laundering $20 billion dollars for Russia. He was previously detained in 2016 but charges were subsequently dropped.
Acting Prosecutor General Ion Munteanu gave an interview to TV8 criticizing efforts to vet his office. He praised the work of the authorities on justice reform, but noted that many laws are written by “non-practitioners” and that prosecutors are becoming lost in the various amendments. The Acting Prosecutor General predicts that up to half of the prosecutors in his office will resign rather than go through the vetting process. He explained this saying:
“The atmosphere in the prosecutor’s office is such that prosecutors who decide to undergo this test will take a risk. But the worst thing is not the fear of the consequences of not being vetted. All prosecutors throughout this period, I suspect, will try to be as inconspicuous as possible, and not make very public decisions, or decisions that will cause discontent in society. That's the job of a prosecutor; you can't please everyone. Our decisions are criticized, critically assessed, less often - positively, no matter what they are,”
"...Yes, cleaning is necessary, but we need predictability, we need to know how to manage the situation,”
Economics and Infrastructure
Here’s a rapid fire roundup of the top economics and infrastructure stories making headlines this week:
WizzAir will return to Moldova in December. The low-cost carrier will begin operating flights from Chisinau to London, Milan and Rome.
The National Bank forecasts a 4.5% annual inflation rate in 2024. Inflation has been falling over the course of 2023 from a peak of nearly 35% and the year will end with an annual rate of 13.6%. National Bank Governor Armasu explained the changing situation saying:
“We have passed the wave of inflation. Now we are at the stage where we need to support economic recovery and help economic growth,”
Government approves a bill to restrict cash payments. The bill would put a cash-cap of 300,000 lei on automotive and real-estate transactions. It would also limit the amount of cash companies can keep outside the bank to 3-days of operating costs. Certain industries including legal professionals and medical professions will be limited to accepting 100,000 lei / month in cash payments, and other industries such as scrap metal and agricultural products will be limited to 100,000 lei / year. The government explains the need for the bill noting the amount of illicit cash that moved through the country in the last election. Experts largely agree that this bill will not stop cash transactions but will instead force time consuming workarounds and in some cases illicit activity and tax evasion.
GazProm has formally announced that they reject the findings of the independent audit on Moldova’s “historical debts.” President Sandu commented on the news saying:
"We are not interested in whether they approve the audit or not"