Pre-Election Drama and New Security Threats
Weekly Roundup: October 5th, 2023
The (former) Shor Party and Local Elections
Two weeks ago the Constitutional Court deadlocked in a 2-2 ruling concerning whether or not the 5 year prohibition against running for public office for members of “unconstitutional” political parties was constitutional. Since tied votes in the court result in the law under consideration being deemed constitutional, the court upheld changes to the electoral code that banned former Shor party leadership and elected representatives from seeking office. Following the ruling, Marina Tauber and other “former” Shor party members appealed the ruling on new grounds highlighting the fact that the amendments to the electoral code were passed after the party was declared “unconstitutional” earlier in the year. In this new challenge, the court ruled 3-2 in favor of the Shor party candidates with the tie breaking vote being Judge Domnica Manole who had missed the first challenge while on sick leave.
Following the ruling, Marina Tauber re-submitted her application to run for mayor of Balti and it was accepted by the Balti Central Election Commission. She intends to run as an “independent” candidate.
This ruling, which happened on October 3rd, came 3 days before the official start of the campaign period for local elections. In reaction, officials in the government and parliament scrambled to respond to the Constitutional Court’s objections with Parliamentary Speaker Igor Grosu convening an urgent meeting of parliament on October 4th. Framing the issue, PAS party leaders clearly stated that the former Shor party is a national security threat both as an organized criminal enterprise and as cutouts for the Kremlin. Speaker Grosu stated his intention to reaffirm the ban in parliament and explained it saying:
"We are not fighting these bandits, we are in open confrontation with the Russian Federation, and the Kremlin no longer denies this,”
The government also responded by convening the Commission for Emergency Situations which used emergency powers to institute a new ban on certain individuals running for elected office. The government’s emergency decree stated that anyone who meets 1 of the following 4 criteria would not be allowed to run for office:
who are suspected or accused of committing crimes specified at the time the political party was declared unconstitutional;
directly committed actions that became arguments for the decision of the Constitutional Court to declare a political party unconstitutional;
who were excluded from participation in previous elections as a result of violation of the principle of transparency of funding, which served as an argument for declaring the political party unconstitutional.
against whom international sanctions were introduced, contained in the decision of the Constitutional Court to recognize the political party as unconstitutional.
Parliament then met on October 4th and codified in the electoral code a similar set of 3 criteria which is nearly identical to the government decision except for the omission of #1 above. These amendments were passed in the first reading and require the police, security services and prosecutors to prepare information on anyone impacted within 3 days. This information will then be sent to the Central Election Commission CEC which will have 1 day to create a list of people who are prohibited from running for office. Anyone put on such a list will have the opportunity to appeal in court. Parliament took a break for a few hours and then passed the amendments in the 2nd reading making them law.
In effect, the government and parliament have narrowed the ban which previously affected all Shor party elected representatives at local, regional and national levels, as well as party leadership.
Responding to the actions of the government and parliament Ilan Shor released a video calling October 4th a "dark day in Moldovan history" and decrying what he called Moldova’s decent into “dictatorship.”
Other opposition parties were quick to condemn the move as well. Socialist and Communist deputies walked out of parliament in protest and are demanding that the state of emergency be lifted. Former Socialist-affiliated Prime Minister Ion Chicu responded saying:
“The gang, which is supported by the West, banned the gang, supported by the East, from participating in the elections.”
The opposition primarily focused on the fact that the ban was implemented (partly) by emergency decree. But it was also passed by parliament on the same day. This is legal as laws passed in the first reading have a 10 day window for amendments to be added but no minimum time specified between the first and second votes. Director of Watchdog.md Valeriu Pasa commented on the amendments saying:
“The amendments are based on yesterday’s decision of the Constitutional Court. The previous amendment was quite vague and disproportionate. The village councilor, who never saw Shor in person, should not be held responsible for the fact that Shor and the entire leadership illegally financed the party. Those who made the decisions that led to the offense must be held accountable. And, as I understand, PAS tried to correct the previous shortcomings with new amendments,”
At the same time he noted that this procedure was sloppy and avoidable. Platform DA, another extra-parliamentary party and former PAS ally in the 2019 election cycle has been calling for clear electoral amendments that implement the Constitutional Court’s decision on the Shor party for months. Pasa noted that if PAS had moved more quickly on clarifying these details it would not be necessary to pass last minute laws without consultations.
Fallout Continues from Anti-Shor Undercover Investigations
Two weeks ago we wrote about the undercover operation whereby ALDE party leader Arina Spataru gathered evidence against Ilan Shor and his operations which led to the arrest of the leadership of the Renaissance Party. Spataru, who some news outlets have taken to calling Arina-007, has faced attacks and criticism from various figures questioning her intentions and the timeline of the operation. Igor Munteanu, leader of the CUB party and former MP from the Platform DA party serving alongside Spataru, accused Moldova’s intelligence services of “interfering in politics.” He claims that because the ALDE party was formed after Spataru was contacted by Shor, that the party has effectively been created for the purposes of an intelligence and law enforcement operation. Spataru responded by insisting that ALDE is an independent party and that only she and the party secretary were involved in the case. She went on to claim that Munteanu was defending Shor, and noting that arrested mayoral candidate Mihai Bagas was affiliated with the CUB party when it was founded. Munteanu has responded saying that he will sue for libel. Spataru responded saying that she has more names and that she will “explode Moldovan politics.”
Meanwhile the League of Cities and Communities LOC party withdrew its support for Bagas requesting his name be removed from the ballot. Bagas is now being defended by one of Ilan Shor’s lawyers.
Ilan Shor decided to address the situation by posting a video claiming that he gave Arina Spataru $1.45 million USD to support her party. He then asked:
“I have a question: where is the money and how will you return it?
“Mr. Ilan Shor, come home to Moldova. Tell the prosecutors where the billion is, and we will tell you where the rest of the money is [referring to the Theft of the Billion in 2014]. But seriously, all the money that Ilan Shor transferred was documented by the competent authorities. Now we cannot disclose more details, what amounts are in question and where this money is located,”
Ilan Shor’s representatives then filed a criminal complaint with Moldovan prosecutors claiming that Spataru had stolen this $1.45 million dollars from him. Arina Spataru responded with another zinger saying:
"We understand that Ilan Shor is trying in this way to justify his failure to Putin’s people. But everyone knows that Moscow does not believe in tears." [referencing the 1980 Soviet drama of the same name]
This whole episode has clearly not gone in Mr. Shor’s favor and has massively raised the profile and name recognition of Arina Spataru and the ALDE party. Experts are somewhat split on what this might mean for her own political prospects, but many note that while she has the national spotlight, her party has no program, little party organization and almost no national or regional infrastructure. It remains to be seen if she can parlay this situation into lasting national standing, or if she is just enjoying her 15 minutes of fame.
Meanwhile, as pundits debate the fallout of the undercover operation and barbs are traded on TV, prosecutors continue to trace illicit financing within Shor’s Renaissance Party with additional raids being reported at offices and homes of party activists on October 4th across northern Moldova.
Other Political News
Here’s a rapid fire roundup of the top politics and international affairs stories of the week:
Minister of Finance Veronica Sireteanu left office for maternity leave. Prime Minister Recean wished her well on her departure and her "next important mission." The Prime Minister announced the next day that he was proposing Petru Rotaru, Director of the State Tax Service, as the new Minister of Finance.
The government announced a "Growth for Moldova" spending package. These announcements, timed somewhat suspiciously close to upcoming elections, include the following expenses:
Pay raises for 48,000 doctors and medical assistants
A one time bonus of 5000 lei for all teachers in Moldova (the Union of Teachers has said that its members are happy for a bonus, but really want a pay raise. They are demanding raises of 20% in order to align with the national average salary of 11,500 lei / month).
A one time bonus of 5000 lei for 10,000 Ministry of Internal Affairs employees (police and carabinieri).
A pay raise of 25% for 1700 “cultural” workers in the government.
President Sandu had a state visit to Portugal October 2 - 4. The President met with the Portuguese President and attended various meetings with government representatives. Portugal affirmed support for Moldova’s EU path and gave President Sandu the “key to the city” of Lisbon. Following this trip President Sandu will continue to the 3rd European Political Community Summit in Spain.
Iulian Muntean has resigned his position on the Superior Council of Magistracy following last week’s revelation of an unreported arrest on suspicion of corruption. Law enforcement authorities say that they did not turn over information about this arrest to the Pre-Vetting Commission because of procedural issues where, in some cases, records are not entered into the system unless the case is brought to court. Anti-Corruption Prosecutors have opened a criminal case against the National Anti Corruption Center CNA over the failure to provide this information. Head of the Judicial Committee in parliament, Olesea Stamate, has claimed that this is only political posturing from Anti-Corruption Prosecutors in order to cover up their own failings. This highlights the continuing bad blood between Stamate and Anti-Corruption Prosecutor Veronica Dragalin. Another government candidate from civil society who was proposed for the Superior Council of Prosecutors de-facto withdrew his candidacy this week by refusing to submit to the pre-vetting process. Taken together these stories imply serious cracks in the pre-vetting and vetting systems.
President Sandu signed a decree dismissing Prosecutor General Alexandr Stoianoglo. This marks the (possible) culmination of a process that began in 2019 when then Prime Minister Sandu attempted to dismiss Stoianoglo resulting in the collapse of her coalition government. Alexandr Stoianoglo is associated with Vladimir Plahotniuc and has multiple criminal cases open against him with some in trial. Stoianoglo has not exercised power as Prosecutor General since being suspended and arrested in October 2021. Until now, process related objections by the EU and Venice Commission have forced the government to operate since this time with Interim Prosecutor Generals while waiting for the criminal cases to conclude. They did not, but President Sandu cited EU support for removing him now, as everyone is apparently fed up with Moldova’s glacially slow justice system. Stoianoglo has announced his intention to appeal the dismissal in court.
Lawyers for Vladimir Plahotniuc have appealed to the European Court for sanctions relief. The fugitive oligarch argues that he should not be grouped with such characters as Ilan Shor and Tauber. It is unclear if the court will hear his appeal.
Russian Missile Attacks Continue to Spill Over
This past week security news has been dominated by more and more stories of missile, rocket and drone fragments falling in Moldovan or Romanian territory as Russia continues to attack shipping infrastructure in Ukraine. On September 26th Russia struck and destroyed the Ukrainian side of the Orlovka-Isakcha border crossing that serves as a trucking link between Ukraine and Romania. Two truck drivers were injured in the attack.
Video shared on Telegram and twitter shows the moment of the attack from the Romanian side of the border. Romania has announced the deployment of air defense assets to the border region with Ukraine and 4 American F-16s have been deployed to Romania’s Borcea military airbase 150 km south of the border.
In Romania’s remote and scenic delta region, residents have been getting phone alerts when missile are detected in flight towards nearby Ukrainian towns. The alerts urge them to seek shelter immediately in basements or designated bomb shelters. Romanian authorities are building shelters in some regional towns.
Missile or rocket debris was found in Transnistria last week with the local “authorities” deploying sappers to handle any unexploded ordinance. They have refused offers of help from Moldova as well as requests to inspect the crash site. President Sandu commented on the situation saying:
“I have the same information that our institutions reported. It is clear that we cannot check on the spot what happened, because it happened on the territory of the Transnistrian region. But, in any case, this happened because of the war. Bombs are falling because there is a war in Ukraine, and Russia started the war,”
Days later, rocket debris were discovered in a lake in the Causeni and Anneni Noi region (the lake straddles the border). Police and army sappers were deployed and safely destroyed remaining ordinance. It is not yet known what kind of rocket or missile it was but thankfully it landed more than 1 km from any residential building. The location is unexpected as the lake and nearby village of Firledeni are located well inside Moldova, west of Bender and over 20 km from the nearest Ukrainian border point.
The Ministry of Defense announced an agreement to buy a Ground Master 200 air defense radar system from the French company THALES. The radar should be deployed in Moldova by December and will allow the Moldovan Army to monitor the airspace and know when it is being violated. There is no air-defense or shoot-down capability in this system though the Army is working to acquire capabilities in this area as well.
Other Security News
Here’s a rapid fire roundup of the important Transnistria and security news of the week:
A group calling themselves the “People’s Cyber Army” declared cyber war on Moldova. The group posted a video in order to take credit for a wave of major cyber attacks targeting Moldovan energy companies, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Chisinau Airport, National Energy Regulator and other local websites including multiple independent media outlets. Most were DDoS attacks designed to take down the targeted website. The government temporarily restricted access to many sites for people outside Moldova in defense. All the attacking traffic came from Russia. In their statement, the People’s Cyber Army said:
“We, Russian hackers, declare cyber war on Moldova. Your debts for Russian gas are violations that we can no longer tolerate. Your actions related to Romania and arms supplies to Ukraine raise serious concerns. We will go to the end to protect our interests and safety online. Prepare for serious consequences, we will break you to the end,”
The Buicani Court in Chisinau was targeted with repeat bomb threats on September 27th and October 4th. No dangerous objects were found. Threats have increased in past weeks after a lull for more than 6 months.
The Moldovan Army continues an increased pace of exercises. In September Moldovan Army Units conducted bilateral exercises with counterparts in Romania. Additionally, a Moldovan Special Forces (FULGER) unit conducted exercises and training with US Special Forces in Texas. Among other topics they trained in the use of Javelin anti-tank systems. From October 25th to 31st more exercises are planned in Moldova with participation of the US Army.
Economics and Infrastructure
Here’s a rapid fire roundup of the major stories in economics and infrastructure this week:
Romania restricts Moldovan and Ukrainian grain. The Romanian government has published a draft emergency decree which restricts the import of grains and food oil component products from Moldova and Ukraine. The restriction allows importation only with a license and an application proving to the Romanian government that the importer is facing a shortfall that they cannot make up domestically. Romania claims that this is done to protect their farmers.
The Moldovan Ministry of Agriculture restricts imports of grains and food oil products. It is unclear if this is meant as a direct response to Romania and other protectionist moves in the region, or simply as a placation to farmers worried about Ukrainian imports. The Ministry has said that, just like in Romania, importers will need to apply for a license and justify their need to replenish supplies. Moldova is expecting 1.2 million tons of grains in the first round of harvest this year. That is double the 2022 yield and significantly over the 400,000 tons needed for domestic consumption. Moldovan farmers are already facing a crisis in their ability to export products due to logistical problems at the border and the lack of Ukrainian port access.
The Ministry of Labor and Social Protection has announced that registration for this winter’s energy subsidy program will begin on November 1st. Consumers will have to register and apply on the government website after which subsidies will automatically be calculated and applied to their bills. In parallel, the government announced that they would be unable to provide free firewood for families who do not have gas or electric heating this year. Instead they will provide a 700 lei cash subsidy.
The Romanian government has announced their interest in buying the management concession for Moldova’s port of Giurgiulesti. The port is owned by the government but given in concession to a private company for development and management on a 99 year lease. Currently the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development EBRD is the sole shareholder in the port. The Romanian government explained their interest noting the major role that Romania expects to play in reconstruction efforts in Ukraine and the need to make infrastructure investments looking forward to this time.
The Turkish state company BOTAȘ has announced a natural gas export agreement with Moldovan company East Gas Energy Trading. This deal provides for the sale of 2 million cubic meters per day, equivalent to nearly 100% of the gas consumption of Moldova (excluding Transnistria) in October. Prior to the announcement East Gas Energy Trading was almost unknown to the public and the Moldovan authorities learned of the massive energy deal through the news. The company was founded in 2020 and has 4 owners, one of which is the wife of a close associate of Vladimir Plahotniuc. Minister of Energy Victor Parlicov noted that this company is part of the private market and not subject to government regulations. Experts noted that private sector competition in gas imports is good… but no one understands where such a large amount of gas might go. Alexander Slusari, board member of the state energy company Energocom said that the government previously approached BOTAȘ about a gas supply deal but were turned away. He speculated that the connections of East Gas Energy Trading to Plahotniuc, as well as Plahotniuc’s connections to the Turkish government mean that "there are too many coincidences." Speculating further he said:
“I would assume that this is Russian gas, which will be supplied to Moldova at dumping prices and will try to be used for political purposes. To support Shor, perhaps,”
Household renewable energy will become more expensive in Moldova. The Ministry of Energy has proposed changes to laws governing household solar and renewable power generation that will make it less attractive to install renewables in Moldova. Under the current law, passed in 2016, customers who generate more power than they consume feed that power back into the grid and get a credit which they can use when they have a power deficit. This is traded in kW/h’s. As an example, a house that generates the same amount of excess power during the day that they consume at night would see a 1-1 tradeoff in power generation and consumption. A house that generates more power annually than they use will get a payout from the electrical utility once a year for the excess power billed at the average production cost of that electricity for the utility. Under the proposed new rules, called “net billing,” the energy offset will be calculated in lei not kW/h’s. The customer will therefore buy electricity at the retail price, but sell it back to the utility at the utility’s production price. This means that in the example above of a house that is 100% self-sufficient, the owner will pay around 30% more based on the difference in calculation. The Ministry of Energy justified the proposed changes saying that energy prices last year produced a boom in household and small scale renewable investment and that some people “misinterpreted the law” and thought they could build a micro-business in energy productions. The addition of lots of solar has made the power grid overloaded in peak sunny hours causing instability. Additionally, the Ministry says that “net billing” is the norm in the EU and most other countries. Experts note that while this switch is based on an EU norm, it will hurt investment in renewables. Many people who invested in overcapacity systems did so in order to "bank” power in the summer in order to pay for heating in the winter. Larger than needed solar systems facilitate moves to electric heating (split systems or heat pumps) as well as electric cars. These new regulations will increase the payback time for these investments and make renewables less attractive in a country currently almost totally reliant on imported fossil fuels. The rules go into effect in 2024 but all investments made until December 31st 2023 will be allowed to operated under the old rules until 2027.
Yes - a lot going on!