Political Developments and EU Integration Efforts
Weekly Roundup: December 8, 2023
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Political News
This week we didn’t see a dominant political story in the news, but instead a number of smaller but important developments to watch. One of the most important revolves around the upcoming Summit of EU Leaders which will take place December 14 - 15. Following the recommendation by the European Commission on November 8th, and with support of the EU Parliament, the summit of leaders is expected to consider the start of ascension negotiations with Moldova and Ukraine. The start of these negotiations would mark a major step towards the EU by both countries, and reflect EU leaders’ satisfaction with the pace of reforms.
Leading up to this summit President Sandu and the Moldovan Government have been lobbying the leaders of EU countries in meetings and calls in order to secure their support. This continued this week with President Sandu speaking to the President of Cyprus and Prime Minister of Malta on the topic. Thus far Moldova has been gaining assurances of support from countries across the block.
That said, the decision of EU leaders must be unanimous. Prime Minister of Hungary Viktor Orban has indicated that he will block the start of negotiations with Ukraine at the summit. This has led to speculation this week that the decision may be punted until March.
Responding to these rumors, and attempting to manage expectations, Prime Minister Recean stated the following in an interview this week:
“We have to keep working. The reforms that we are introducing, the legislation that we are adjusting, are intended for the citizens of Moldova. We are building Europe at home. If this doesn't happen in December, it will happen in March. If not in March, it will happen anyway. But we must continue to implement the necessary reforms for our citizens, we must continue to build Europe at home. We have already made a choice,”
The Prime Minister also stressed the government’s position that Moldova and Ukraine advance towards the EU together and not separately.
The next week will likely involve a continued scramble of diplomacy to try and convince holdout leaders ahead of the summit. We’ll follow this progress in weeks to come.
Other Political News
Here’s a rapid fire roundup of the other political stories driving the news this week:
Moldova offers to host COP29(?) Reuters has reported that Moldova threw it’s hat in the ring and offered to host next year’s major climate summit. Normally the COP29 host would have been announced at the beginning of COP28 but this year there is a wrinkle. The UN’s rules on the COP summits rotate them through 6 geographical regions and the countries in those regions must unanimously agree to a host. COP29 is due to be hosted in Eastern Europe, and because of the war, Russia is blocking Ukraine and all EU member states. This has left Moldova, Serbia and Azerbaijani (with the support of Armenia) to express willingness to support. Moldova’s experience hosting the EPC Summit last spring will be a strong recommendation, but it is unclear if the region’s geopolitics will allow any of these countries to be chosen. If not, COP29 could revert to Germany (HQ of the UN climate secretariat) or stay in the UAE for another year.
President Sandu calls a meeting of all mayors on December 9th. The meeting will be about the possibilities of European integration and efforts to support local development. The Socialist Party called on their mayors to boycott what they called a "propaganda show." Currently, most of the country’s nearly 900 mayors are expected to attend.
Consolidation in the opposition? Representatives of the major non-Shor opposition parties, Socialists, MAN, Irina Vlah’s platform and PSDE (formerly PDM) met to create a “common platform for dialog.” The parties signaled a willingness to at least talk around their common goal of opposing PAS.
Parliament passes the 2024 budget in the first reading. The budget was passed with 56 votes (54 PAS, 1 Block of Communists and Socialists, 1 independent). Teacher’s salaries will grow by 15%, the number of scholarship positions for pedagogical students will double, money is allocated for small business loan guarantees (373) and further structural reforms to government agencies. The one time allowance for the birth of a child will also increase from 10,900 lei to 20,000 lei. The expected deficit is 15 billion lei. Public debt currently stands at 36.7% of GDP.
More drama in the Orthodox Church(s). The Holy Hierarch Nicholas' Church in Chisinau announced this week that they are switching allegiance to the Bessarabian Metropolis. The announcement was made by the priests of the church to the parishioners and appeared to have broad support. Meanwhile, the Metropolis of Bessarabia announced their intention to repossess the Cathedral of Saints Constantine and Helena in Balti. The Cathedral is currently the seat of Bishop Markell of the Moldovan Orthodox Church. The Metropolis of Bessarabia claims to have “evidence” supporting their claim to the property and called its current status a “historical mistake.” Bishop Markell responded by noting that the Cathedral is state property on loan to the Moldovan Orthodox Church. He also gave a fiery response saying:
“I’m not going to stoop to such talk. They came here with whips and machine guns and forgot to leave until Stalin reminded them: people, have a conscience, know when to stop,”
The Ministry of Education announces a voluntary school consolidation program. The program will designate 35 “exemplary” lyceums (high schools) across the regional centers in Moldova. The government will encourage parents to transfer their children out of very small schools (those with fewer than 50 students) by offering a 50 euro / month payment. The Ministry is also investing in 140 new school buses to aid in the consolidation. The announcement comes on the heels of the release of the 2022 PISA test scores (Program for International Student Assessment). The test scores showed that on average Moldovan students tested (aged 15) were substantially behind the EU average, but were regionally competitive in Eastern Europe. The biggest gap in scores within Moldova was based on school size, with students of the smallest schools lagging, on average, 2 years behind those in larger schools according to the Minister of Education.
The Socialist Party has requested that the Constitutional Court CC review the election code passed in late 2022. Their contention is part of the law that says the following: “Elections for the position of the President of the Republic of Moldova are held within two months after the position of the President of the Republic of Moldova becomes vacant, in accordance with Article 90 of the Constitution of the Republic of Moldova.” This language exactly mirrors the constitution, which defines vacancy as “the event of expiration of the term of office, resignation, removal from office, permanent inability to perform his duties, or death.” The Socialists argue that utilizing this clause, President Sandu could seek to extend her term by adding 2 months where she would be the interim president waiting for elections. Igor Dodon argues that PAS wants to align the Presidential elections (scheduled for Nov 2024) and Parliamentary Elections (July 2025). Technically the elections could be held on the same day if Parliament dissolved early - with or without the 2 months extension. PAS representatives said that there was no plan to extend the term and civil society voices noted that this seems to be a real question that the Constitutional Court should clarify.
The Moldova Post will increase the tariff for newspaper deliveries by 341%. The post office explained that they are increasing prices to align with rising costs. In January they raised the distribution price by 40% and announced another 40% rise in October, but when this was finalized it became 341%. The country's largest print newspaper, ZdG, announced that this would result in a price increase of 350% for subscriptions. The newspaper notes that many print readers are elderly and on fixed incomes and that this price raise could kill the print newspaper business. The government responded by saying that this was a long overdue correction, but noting the importance of assuring the viability of print media. The Independent Press Association and the government are talking about including a subsidy on distribution costs in next year’s planned “Media Subsidy Fund” though newspapers would have to qualify for this by proving their professional ethics and editorial standards. The Moldova Post has paused the tariff hike until March to let these talks play out.
Ilan Shor has taken over TV Chanel 5 from a company affiliated with Vladimir Plahotniuc. The station has begun airing content from the recently banned Channel 6 and Orizont TV, both Shor affiliated.
Security News
Here is a rapid fire roundup of the top security and defense stories of the week:
Prosecutors have opened an investigation against Alexander Kalinin, chairman of the Party of Regions in Moldova. Kalinin is presumed to be in Russia or occupied Ukraine where he regularly releases video of himself in military uniform supporting Russia. This week he claimed he is gathering an international unit named “Dniester” which will fight for Russia in Ukraine and later in Moldova. On November 28th President Sandu stripped Kalinin of his citizenship. He is also under sanctions from the EU and Canada.
Ukraine has unveiled a statue of Moldova native Alexander Matsievsky outside the Kyiv Military Museum. The lifelike statue depicts Matsievsky as he was seen in a video released last march, where he is harassed by Russian captors before saying “Glory to Ukraine” and being shot in cold blood. Alexander Matsievsky was posthumously declared a Hero of Ukraine.
Police in Chisinau are calling for calm after an anonymous telegram channel posted threats against multiple schools in the city. The posts showed collections of guns and ammunition. The police have said that the pictures were old and taken from various social media accounts. They called the threats "a hybrid attack, designed to devastate citizens and create panic in society" and noted that they are part of the ongoing information war against Moldova.
Economic and Infrastructure News
Here is a rapid fire roundup of the top economic and infrastructure stories of the week:
The Government approved an extension of the IT-Parks law until 2035. The law continues the special “single tax” of 7% of the company’s revenue until that date. It also expands the definition of IT companies to include call centers. Currently companies registered with the IT Parks employ 21,000 people and account for 5% of national GDP (a 33% increase over 2022). As covered by the Journo Birds team, this has resulted in a growing startup community in Moldova with tech playing a greater and greater role in the economy.
The Government announced energy subsidies for the winter. During the application period 791,000 households applied for subsidies and 91.5% were found to have some level of vulnerability and will get support. People who have applied should login to their account and view the results of their applications. The price of gas will vary between 12 lei / cubic meter for those with very high vulnerability up to 18 lei for those paying full price. Last year the gas tariff was 27 lei before subsidies.
Ilan Shor’s 10 lei natural gas never arrived (and likely won’t). During the election campaign Shor’s cutout, Bashkan Hutsel, announced a 10 lei / cubic meter gas contract for Gagauzia, Orhei and Taraclia. This gas, contrasted with the 18 lei / cube national rate (before subsidies) was supposed to start flowing on December 1st. It didn’t. Shor blames MoldovaGaz, which in turn noted that no one had applied to switch their gas suppliers. Shor’s cutouts only opened an office to start gathering these applications December 4th. The process of changing suppliers takes 30 days and the gas company Shor claims will supply the gas does not yet have transit contracts. This makes it exceedingly unlikely the gas will arrive this winter… if it ever existed at all.
The Ministry of Economy announced progress on digitizing state services. In a post on facebook, Minister Alaiba noted that in 2023, 252 out of 525 (50%) state services for business were digitized and can now be done online. The Ministry aims to have 75% of services digitized by the end of 2024. Of those that were online in 2023, 70% of applicants used the online system instead of going to an office and 2 out of 3 entrepreneurs expressed satisfaction with the digital services. Digitization is a major priority of the Ministry of Economy as a means to cut down on corruption by removing the human element in business to state interactions.
A Celebrity Visit to Moldova
Last week actor Stanley Tucci came to Moldova with UNHCR to meet with Ukrainian refugees in the country. During his visit he learned to cook borscht. He later posted a video on instagram talking about the trip and explaining that when he tried to cook it again back in the US things didn’t work out saying:
“I'm sure I did something wrong. I'll try to cook it again. I apologize, especially to Svetlana, who taught me how to cook borscht in Moldova,”
Borscht is a national dish in Ukraine and is popular throughout Eastern Europe, Russia and Central Asia. The choice to make a semi-vegetarian version may have led Mr. Tucci down the wrong path, but whatever the cause, the trip and video brought attention to the fact that Ukrainian refugees all across Europe are beginning a second winter away from home. As global attention has focused on other major crises, especially in Israel and Gaza, it is important to remember the millions of Ukrainians who remain displaced 2 years into this war, and who will be spending this holiday season far from those they love.
Thank you!