Negotiations Begin

Quick Hit: December 15th, 2023

Welcome back to Moldova Matters! We’ll be back in a few days with a full Weekly Roundup but today we’ll just focus on the biggest news - Moldova and Ukraine are set to begin EU accession negotiations.

** Update: The original version of this article said that Moldovan government representatives met with Hungarian counterparts in Hungary. This was in error as they actually met in Paris at the an OECD event. The article has been corrected to reflect this.

Moldova and Ukraine will start negotiations

Last night Charles Michel, President of the European Council, posted on Twitter that the European Council had decided to open negotiations with Moldova and Ukraine on accession to the European Union. The news was greeted with joy and scenes of celebration in both Moldova and Ukraine and marks a major step towards eventual membership in the EU.

Addressing Moldovan citizens alongside Speaker Grosu and Prime Minister Recean, President Sandu said:

"Dear citizens, today we received very good and very important news from Brussels. Today the European Council decided to open negotiations with the Republic of Moldova. It is a very important step on our path to European integration and it is to your credit, first of all, that we have arrived here. Through your vote, through years of responsible civic activity aimed at defending democracy, for building a better future for us and future generations, you contributed to this decision.

We still have a lot of work to do, but we are encouraged by this appreciation and this important decision by the countries of the European Union, who said once again, firmly, that they want the Republic of Moldova to be part of the great EU family",

The President has declared this Sunday a day of celebration and called citizens to gather at the Presidential Administration at 2 pm to celebrate together.

President of the European Parliament Roberta Metsola, a strong supporter of both Moldova and Ukraine, marked the occasion by posting:

“Europe is Moldova. Moldova is Europe,

Europa este Moldova. Moldova este Europa.”

Presidents Sandu and Zelenskyy also congratulated each other and each other’s country’s. President Sandu posted:

“It is a great honor for me to share this path with Ukraine and Vladimir Zelensky. This would not have happened without Ukraine's courageous resistance to Russia's brutal invasion. Let’s start this journey together to create an even stronger and united Europe,

President Zelenskyy posted:

“I congratulate every Ukrainian, as well as Moldova and personally Maia Sandu. History is created by those who never tire of fighting for freedom,”

Following the news the Parliament was lit up with the European flag and this morning’s meeting of Parliament was opened with the national anthems of Moldova and of the European Union.

Source Parliament.md

How did we get here?

The news was particularly exciting because there was real doubt that negotiations would be opened this year. Moldovan and Ukrainian leaders and diplomats have spent months shuttling around Europe building support for the agreement to start negotiations at the European Council summit scheduled to be held on December 15th. Initially there were strong hopes that this would happen, but they had faded over the last few weeks after Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán signaled that he was not willing to support Ukraine.

Speaking earlier this week, Moldovan Foreign Minister Nicu Popescu explained the state of play saying:

“Absolutely every EU country supports Moldova at this stage and the transition to the next stage. But topics in the EU are often interconnected. The European Commission recommended opening negotiations with Moldova, Ukraine, Bosnia and Herzegovina. There are unfinished discussions regarding Ukraine and Bosnia and Herzegovina. You have seen that some countries have questions for Ukraine, and there are countries that have questions for Bosnia and Herzegovina. There are no questions for Moldova at this stage,”

Minister Popescu and Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Economy Dumitru Alaiba particularly met with the Hungarian government representatives this week and secured clear statements of support for Moldova’s starting negotiations. At the same time, Ukraine remained a sticking point.

A series of last minute negotiations right down to the announcement last night finally resulted in the “unanimous” decision that is required by the European Council.

First, on December 13th, the European Union unfroze 10.3 billion euros in financing for Hungary that had previously been withheld over rule of law concerns. Even with this “enticement” Viktor Orbán continued to clearly state that he was not willing to support Ukraine saying that the country was “not ready.”

During a meeting of leaders on Thursday, President Zelenskyy called in via video link and stated:

“This day will go down in history. Whether it is good or bad for us, history will record everything. Every word, every step, every action and inaction. Who fought for what? It is very important that Europe today does not fall into indecision. Nobody wants Europe to be seen as unreliable. Or unable to make decisions that she herself prepared,”

Statements like this indicate just how down to the wire the negotiations were. French President Macron spent much of the day alongside other EU leaders trying to convince Orbán to budge from his position, but it was German Chancellor Olaf Scholz who has been credited by Politico.eu’s reporting with the critical diplomatic move. During evening discussions, after 3 hours of disagreement between the leaders, Chancellor Scholz addressed Orbán saying: "Grab a coffee outside the room, perhaps."

European Council decision making requires unanimity, but there is a provision allowing 1 leader to be absent. Chancellor Scholz’s strategy allowed Prime Minister Orbán to voluntarily leave the room and effectively abstain from the decision. It is not clear if this tactic has ever been used before.

Orbán chose to leave the room and later called the move start of negotiations “irrational” but clarified that Hungary was comfortable abstaining. He also noted that he “succeeded” in blocking 50 billion euros in economic assistance to Ukraine at the same time.

What this means

The start of negotiations is an important technical step on Moldova and Ukraine’s path towards EU accession. It indicates that the initial list of reforms and preparations have been accomplished or are underway and begins a new phase of talks. More importantly this was a major symbolic signal from the EU. The block was able to show unity and a willingness to expand - even on the same day that Vladimir Putin was touting falling western support for Ukraine at his annual press conference.

Even though unanimity was achieved at the last moment, and barely, the signal to Chisinau and Kyiv was sent clearly. Moldova and Ukraine have a future together in Europe.

The journey towards full membership remains a long one and much work lies ahead for both countries. But last night a major step was taken and Chisinau and Kyiv will be feeling a combination of joy and relief.