I'm struggling to understand the likely impact of Sandu losing.
As far as I can tell, she has been the only strictly honest president in the countries history. But things progressed, albeit slowly, before she became president.
But I guess this was before Putin and Shor got serious about ****ing Modova over.
How much can Stoianoglo do without a parliamentary majority?
And, as the interference seems to have been largely successful, can we expect more of it for the second round, and a tidal wave of **** for the parliamentary elections next year?
Hi Nick, I think you mostly got it right there in terms of the *** :)
I did a podcast earlier this year about the role of the presidency and the complicated constitutional powers and the way that the direct elections combined with the common practice of unelected Prime Ministers creates an inherent constitutional instability. Take a listen if you're interested:
In short, it's very hard to predict what would happen but Moldova would move quickly into a constitutionally unstable situation. A lot would ride on how a theoretical president Stoianogolo would act. Given what we know about his backers and their project the main goal is discrediting Moldova's European path - chaos would help with that a lot. And the president can wield a lot of symbolic power.
Definitely the Kremlin will see blood in the water in terms of trying to manipulate the vote for parliament.
But the simplest way to think about it is this - is it possible to imagine Moldova getting into the EU by 2030 if there is a pro-Russia anti-EU president, who is the #1 international representative of the nation - until 2028?
Russia plays for time in Ukraine while they rebuild forces. This would be a major play for time in Moldova.
I'm struggling to understand the likely impact of Sandu losing.
As far as I can tell, she has been the only strictly honest president in the countries history. But things progressed, albeit slowly, before she became president.
But I guess this was before Putin and Shor got serious about ****ing Modova over.
How much can Stoianoglo do without a parliamentary majority?
And, as the interference seems to have been largely successful, can we expect more of it for the second round, and a tidal wave of **** for the parliamentary elections next year?
Hi Nick, I think you mostly got it right there in terms of the *** :)
I did a podcast earlier this year about the role of the presidency and the complicated constitutional powers and the way that the direct elections combined with the common practice of unelected Prime Ministers creates an inherent constitutional instability. Take a listen if you're interested:
https://moldovamatters.substack.com/p/episode-2-the-president-government
In short, it's very hard to predict what would happen but Moldova would move quickly into a constitutionally unstable situation. A lot would ride on how a theoretical president Stoianogolo would act. Given what we know about his backers and their project the main goal is discrediting Moldova's European path - chaos would help with that a lot. And the president can wield a lot of symbolic power.
Definitely the Kremlin will see blood in the water in terms of trying to manipulate the vote for parliament.
But the simplest way to think about it is this - is it possible to imagine Moldova getting into the EU by 2030 if there is a pro-Russia anti-EU president, who is the #1 international representative of the nation - until 2028?
Russia plays for time in Ukraine while they rebuild forces. This would be a major play for time in Moldova.