Deep Dive - Will Russia Invade Ukraine?
… and what does this all mean for Moldova?
Welcome back to “Deep Dives” at Moldova Matters!
This week’s article is going to be very different in a way that only people who click through all the citation links will understand - almost every article cited here is in English either from the US or European press. Normally at Moldova Matters we discuss the happenings in Moldova and link to Moldovan reporting on those issues. Today though, we are going to take a Deep Dive into the current regional tensions and potential Russian Invasion or attack on Ukraine. Interestingly enough, there has been almost no local reporting on this issue in Moldova. So in our article today we are going to rely on international reporting on the situation in Ukraine combined with the analysis of a Moldovan Security Expert working in Germany who I interviewed on background for this article. Additionally I will add my own analysis at times as there is only so much to go on regarding the Moldovan context. Since I’m not a military expert or international affairs expert we’ll try and keep that to a minimum.
At a Glance - Are the Drums of War Beating in Ukraine?
Starting into this Deep Dive we should outline what we’re trying to accomplish. Ukraine is not Moldova and this Newsletter is focused on Moldova so… why are we talking about Ukraine? Simply put, Moldova’s geography and geopolitical situation means that any political, economic or indeed military disruption in Ukraine will have serious implications for Moldova. So today we’re going to start by looking at what is going on in Ukraine and then try and answer the question - what does this mean for Moldova?
In a press conference this week, Lithuanian Foreign Minister Gabrielius Landsbergis said "We are convinced that Russia is actually preparing for an all-out war against Ukraine." Similar direct statements or leaks have come from multiple Western Governments over the past month, all of which are pointing to the unprecedented military buildup in Western Russia and the threat that Russia will invade Ukraine with conventional forces.
Wait, hasn’t Russia already invaded Ukraine?!
Yes they have. Since 2014 Russia has invaded and occupied Crimea and instigated a war in the Donbas where they support local proxy forces against the government in Kyiv. What we are talking about though is very different in scope. In the fighting in the east, which is still going on right now, Russian proxies maintain “plausible” (well… kinda) deniability fighting without flags, insignia or other identifying information. The goal is to make the world think that this is all about Ukrainians fighting Ukrainians. What is being discussed right now is an “all out” invasion which would include airpower, ballistic missiles, and around 175,000 Russian soldiers attacking from multiple sides including naval operations and amphibious landings. So yes, Russia has already invaded Ukraine, but this is something entirely different.
Is this really happening?
That’s the question. In one camp you have figures such as the Lithuanian Foreign Minister quoted above who seemingly endorse the idea that Russia is preparing for an invasion, but that we don’t know if Putin has made a decision to do it yet. On the other side, including many public figures and the Moldovan military analyst spoken to for this article there is another thought - that Russia is making a very credible show of force in order to create a negotiating space, but that there is little to no chance Putin would actually invade because of how damaging this would be to Russia. These are the basic scenarios we will try to understand in this piece.
Background - Russia’s Buildup on the Ukraine Border
In brief, here is the story of how we got to this point. In spring 2021 Russia began a series of large scale military exercises near the border with Ukraine. This led to quite a bit of concern in the western press with some alarmist articles about Russia militarily intervening. At the same time, professional military analysts such as Michael Kofman the Director Russia Studies at CNA (Center for Naval Analysis) had a very different take. Their position was that these troop movements looked like large scale exercises to test readiness but not actually prepare for war. Basically, saber rattling for sure but lacking the logistical preparations for actual warfare. Ultimately, President Biden and President Putin discussed the situation via video call during which Biden expressed the US support for Ukraine’s sovereignty and the two leaders discussed other issues such as cyberattacks. After this meeting much of the tension dissipated and the exercises ended.
But the troops didn’t all go back to their bases.
Meanwhile, the rhetoric coming from the Kremlin has changed dramatically in the last 6 months. First came a very lengthy article by Vladimir Putin himself on the “Historical Unity of Russians and Ukrainians.” In this article, Putin argues that Ukraine is essentially not a country and makes numerous historically dubious claims about the essentially Russian nature of Ukraine. He says, quote: ““the true sovereignty of Ukraine is possible only in partnership with Russia.” At the same time the Kremlin began sending signals that it’s “red lines” had changed in Ukraine. Previously, they spoke constantly about how unacceptable it was that Ukraine was hoping to become a member of NATO. Now they focused much more on any cooperation with NATO or NATO members as being unacceptable. This most certainly refers to US, British and other NATO training missions supporting the Ukrainian army as well as the provision of arms to Ukraine from the United States. Putin began referring to the situation in the Donbas as a “genocide” against ethnic Russians and claimed that Ukraine is preparing a military offensive to attack Russian backed forces in these areas. Russian TV and propaganda has carried these statements and created their own to similarly ratchet up the rhetoric.
The Military Situation Changes
In early November alarm bells started sounding in both the open source analysis community and governments around Europe. At this time, the US government apparently began briefing Ukrainian authorities and European allies on a new buildup in western Russia. Until this point Ukrainian authorities and European allies apparently did not see the new activity on the Russian side as anything they haven’t done before. Large troop movements and exercises seemed normal at this point. What the US was saying is that this is different in a number of ways and they briefed their allies. Shortly after these briefings the Ukrainian general staff gave a press conference and outlined the scenario that they are seeing develop. They noted that Russia may be prepared to invade Ukraine in late January or early February 2022. The scenario presented is shown on this map.
BTG = Battalion Tactical Group. This is a mobile formation in the Russian army totaling around 900 soldiers
At present, this map is already very dated as many more troops have moved into position since early November. But the outline remains the same. In the scenario laid out by the Ukrainian armed forces we see a massive attack along almost the entire eastern border with Russia as well as a thrust upwards from Crimea. Additionally, there is a smaller attack from Belarus and a naval amphibious assault to take Odessa. You will note Russian troops in Transnistria (currently called “peacekeepers”) are noted on the map. We’ll come to that later.
Meanwhile, open source analysts such as Michael Kofman began sounding alarms at the same time as these official briefings were going on. Kofman normally plays the role of the guy telling everyone to calm down in times like these. He outlines what is and isn’t normal and generally tells everyone not to worry. This time he is worried. His analysis is focused on the logistical preparations being made that did not happen in past buildups or exercises. Medical facilities are being put in place and provisions for reserve forces as a follow on “occupying army” are being discussed. Logistically, Russian forces are preparing for a protracted campaign, with US government sources citing around 175,000 troops moving into position (100,000 assault troops and 75,000 follow-on troops or reserves is what Kofman thinks). Qualitatively and quantitatively this is a different kind of deployment.
So… What’s Going On?
This is the million dollar question and it has broadly split the Russia watching community into various camps. We’ll briefly go through a summary of the potential scenarios under discussion in the press going from least to most catastrophic (note, we will discuss likelihood later)
Scenario 1: Coercive Diplomacy - In this scenario the Kremlin is preparing a credible threat of force in order to get concessions from the west. We’ll describe what Russia wants in depth below. The main idea here is that Putin is not willing to actually invade Ukraine but believes that the west is irresolute and divided and that he can make enough people believe he is willing to act so rashly as to bring people to the negotiating table on Russia’s terms.
Scenario 2: Preparation for Limited Strikes - Building on Scenario 1, some speculate that while Putin may not be willing to actually invade, he can make the threat all the more credible with long range attacks. This could include cyber attacks as well as some limited air and ballistic missile bombardment. All backed up by the increasingly credible threat of a land invasion.
Scenario 3: The “Georgia 2008” - In 2008 Russia invaded Georgia but bypassed most urban areas and withdrew without attacking the capital Tbilisi. In this scenario the Russian attack would have the purpose of destroying the Ukrainian army in the field before withdrawing fully or partially from Ukrainian territory. The goal would be to hobble Ukraine militarily and show Russian resolve without getting into urban warfare or insurgency scenarios.
Scenario 4: Invasion of the East - The scenario outlined on the map above could imply Russian positioning to invade and occupy Ukraine as far as the Dnipro river. This would create a land bridge to Crimea and create a defensible line at the river. Some versions of this might also involve totally cutting Ukraine off from the black sea by capturing Odessa and the southern coast.
Scenario 5: Regime Change in Kyiv - In this scenario, Russia intends to fully invade and occupy Ukraine. They may not be able or willing to go into the west of the country fully, but the goal would be to impose their own regime on Kyiv and create a political client state under Russian occupation.
One scenario not really being discussed is that Russia simply wants to annex the Donbas region. This is due to a few factors. Politically and economically both Russia and Ukraine have shown a pragmatic concern that whoever gets the Donbas will have to rebuild it and be responsible for all the war damage already inflicted there. Militarily, the disposition of forces indicates much bigger ambitions than simply taking this region.
Well.. That’s an Increasingly Bleak List
It’s important to realize that these scenarios are all trying to guess “what is in Putin’s head.” Western governments and Ukraine itself have not speculated too much publicly on what the word “invasion” means. This has left the world of Russia watchers, political analysts and journalists to debate the matter endlessly on twitter and in the press. Broadly speaking, insofar as there is any consensus, it’s that Scenarios 4 and 5 are extraordinarily unlikely. Some military analysts such as Michael Kofman lean towards some version of Scenario 3 and believe there is a very high chance that kinetic warfare is a real possibility. Others, such as Dumitru Minzarari argue strongly that Scenario 1 is the only real possibility and that there is very very little chance Russia would actually risk invasion.
Can Russia Do This?
Simply put, Russia’s ability to conduct all 5 scenarios (or others we haven’t thought of) is very high. Ukraine has vastly improved its military forces since the initial Russian invasion in 2014 but they are no match for what is arrayed against them. The Ukrainian army now totals around 150,000 troops and a much larger pool of reservists, many of whom have combat experience. In a wargame scenario eerily like the one we are looking at that was conducted 18 months ago, the RAND corporation estimated that the Russian army could advance to the Dnipro river in a matter of days - essentially occupying half of Ukraine. Other studies have estimated that Kyiv itself could fall within the first days of combat. The basic point is that while the Ukrainian army is far stronger than it once was, their air defense and missile defense capacities are still very weak and a full forced Russian assault including overwhelming airpower would be very hard to resist.
With that said, taking territory and holding it are two very different things. On paper, Russia is able to make rapid advances but they will be trying to occupy territory populated by people who do not want them there. It seems that Ukraine understands that in the case of a full invasion they will need to prepare for partisan warfare and insurgent resistance. Right now Ukraine has organized 80,000 volunteer forces in 25 regional brigades who train once a week with regular army units. Often these volunteers train with wooden cutouts of rifles and must buy their own uniforms in military surplus stores. But the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense has noted that in the case the regular army is overrun they will open the weapons stores so that citizens can arm themselves and continue fighting. Russia watcher Mark Galioti writes extensively about this, citing just how hard it will be for Russia to take and hold hostile cities in a partisan war environment. Ukraine is actively preparing for this scenario. This week they announced the re-activation of 5000 Soveit era bomb shelters (including the very deep Kyiv metro) and have posted a map online so citizens can become acquainted with the nearest bomb shelters to their homes. Air raid sirens are being tested and articles in local papers outline how to prepare your household for war - stock up on non-perishable food, make an evacuation plan (especially if you live in the east or near Crimea), tape your windows so that incoming fire does not spread shattered glass, etc.
Meanwhile, the Washington Post reports that the Biden Administration has tasked the CIA and the Pentagon with examining plans for backing insurgency in Ukraine should that become the reality on the ground. They are studying past insurgencies in order to understand what is feasible (something the US has lots of experience being on the other end of).
All of this is not to say that war is imminent. It is saying that while Russia *could* invade Ukraine both Ukraine and the United States are signaling that this would not be an easy task nor a cost free one. Something that Russia may understand already as they introduced new regulations this week on the digging of mass graves in conflict zones. Helpfully, they note just how far mass graves should be from freshwater sources, etc.
The Question of Deterrence
Since the worries about this new buildup began in November, the United States, NATO and European Allies have been scrambling to find a response and an effective deterrent against a Russian invasion. Initially, Presidents Biden and Putin had a call to discuss the situation where Biden supposedly outlined steps that the US would take to inflict serious costs on Russia should it once again invade Ukraine. While the contents of this talk are not public, additional reporting has led to speculation that the following actions have been threatened by the US and European allies:
SWIFT Ban - SWIFT is the international routing system for banks. If Russia were kicked out of this system it is likely that Russian companies would be unable to send or receive payments outside of Russia until workarounds were found.
Cutting of NORD Stream 2 - The new German government has indicated that they will halt the implementation of Russia’s Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline in the event of Russian aggression.
Sanctions on Russian Sovereign Debt - Currently the US has already sanctioned Russian Sovereign Debt on primary markets. This could be extended into secondary markets and make it much more difficult for Russia to borrow money.
Other Economic Sanctions Including against Political Elites - Sanctioning the Russian Oligarchs and Kremlin insiders is also talked of as a potential consequence as it would put pressure on Putin himself by the wealthy elite who want to visit their houses in France and Miami.
CNN reported that following this conversation up until today the buildup has continued without slowing.
Biden has said explicitly that the US is not contemplating deploying combat troops to Ukraine and the UK has indicated the same. However, the US and UK have both deployed (virtually perhaps) cybercommand personnel to help Ukraine protect critical infrastructure from a potential cyber attack.
It’s important to note that the west could impose massive economic costs on Russia for these actions. Given Ukraine’s ability to extract military costs on the battlefield and American and European promises to hit Russia economically Putin’s decision will have to take into account what he risks. Russia would move into an isolation and separation from global markets similar to Soviet times. Furthermore, it is hard to see huge casualties and costs being popular at home in Russia. Many analysts put this information together and suggest that there is very little chance Putin is willing or that Russia is able to manage these consequences. Hence, the argument for Scenario 1: Coercive diplomacy.
Overall, Biden administration officials have been quoted by CNN that they believe they have 4 weeks to combine effective deterrence with a diplomatic offramp to get Russia to back down. So what would a diplomatic off ramp look like? Well…
What does Russia, Ukraine and the West Want?
For the last 7 years the Russian position on Ukraine has been fairly consistent. Firstly, they want the implementation, based on their own interpretation, of the Minsc II protocols negotiated to stop (or at least quiet down) the conflict in the Donbas. This agreement broadly speaking would involve the federalization of Ukraine with the Donbas region wielding disproportionate power in both domestic and foriegn relations. Put simply, the Kremlin wants the region it controls to have an effective veto over Ukrainian policy. This is very similar to the Kozak Memorandum which Russia proposed in 2003 as a mechanism to resolve the Transnistrain situation with Moscow attaining effective control over Moldovan affairs. Secondly, Russia wants it clear that Ukraine can never, and will never join NATO. Obviously, these are not concessions that Ukraine has been willing to make.
In the last 6 months these red lines have begun to shift however. Firstly, Russia has stopped talking about Ukraine joining NATO and started stating that any cooperation between Ukraine and NATO is a red line. This includes joint training which is ongoing as well as the roughly $2.5 billion dollars of US military support given to Ukraine over the last 7 years. In the past 2 weeks however a new set of highly specific demands has been publicly released by the Kremlin detailing diplomatic concessions that they want from the United States and NATO.